USA: Cattle market overview for the 4th week of 2022

Wholesale prices for block beef showed mixed trends, according to the USDA . The cost of Choice MEAT in the US market fell by $1.99 over the past week, the price of Select beef rose by $1.08. Choice/Select price leverage dropped to $7.01.

CME livestock futures fell midweek as higher slaughter rates were expected to bolster beef supplies and put pressure on meat prices. However, by the end of the week, contracts for livestock began to rise in price again. The USDA has released the results of its six-month study of livestock population across the country. According to preliminary data, the number of cattle turned out to be about half a million heads less than a year ago (-2.1%), and 1.4 million less than it was on January 1, 2019. Livestock supply expected to continue to decline

in the next 2-3 years. Analysts believe that the herd of beef cows will decrease by about 560 thousand HEAD, or 1.8% compared to last year. Producers also expect to retain about 1.8% fewer replacement heifers than a year ago. The fewer cows in the summer of 2022, the fewer calves will be born in early 2023, and in the summer of 2024 there will be fewer cattle on the market.

Beef production is projected to continue to decline even if beef prices hit record highs like last year. The ability to increase production through heavier livestock is also limited, and it seems fair to expect domestic beef supply to decline over the next three years.

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WEEKLY CUT CHOICE COST

AVERAGE WEEKLY LIVESTOCK PRICE

Sale of livestock, heads

Average weight

average price

01/21/2022

01/28/2022

Growth per week,%

01/21/2022

01/28/2022

Growth,%

01/21/2022

01/28/2022

Growth,%

Bulls (live weight)

20 324

25 614

26.0%

1486

1496

0.7%

137.4

136.9

-0.3%

Heifers (live weight)

7 961

10 300

29.4%

1 392

1 351

-2.9%

137.2

136.7

-0.4%

Bulls (slaughter. weight)

11 639

12 739

9.5%

976

969

-0.7%

217.9

218.0

0.0%

Heifers (slaughter weight)

5 722

4 891

-14.5%

855

867

1.4%

218.0

218.0

0.0%

WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF BULLS

BEEF PRODUCTION

Slaughter volume

4 week

3 week 2022

4 weeks 2021

Growth per week,%

Growth per year,%

Live weight

643 000

636 000

656 000

1.1%

-2.0%

slaughter weight

1401

1399

1401

0.1%

0.0%

Beef production (million pounds)

843

844

846

-0.1%

-0.4%

Beef production (thousand tons)

540.8

535.5

553.2

1.0%

-2.2%

CME, Livestock Futures

Week 3

Week 4

Growth per week,%

February

137.93

138.70

0.6%

April

142.10

143.10

0.7%

June

137.30

138.00

0.5%

CME, Fattener Cattle Futures

March

163.30

159.63

-2.2%

April

168.13

165.30

-1.7%

May

169.93