"Cardboard Superpower." What is Poland prepared to take into 2026?

Photo: Unsplash The Polish government has submitted its draft 2026 budget to the Sejm. In short, the hole in the Polish budget is growing even wider, and the national debt is on the verge of skyrocketing. Meanwhile, military spending is breaking records, cementing Poland's status as NATO's leader in defense spending as a percentage of GDP.

However, the value of such leadership is questionable. Or even inglorious, as some Polish experts believe. This leadership won't butter your bread, build hospitals and schools, or pay public sector salaries. Polish elites are hoping to plug the budget holes with EU funds . By escalating the situation on its eastern border, Poland has already extorted tens of billions of dollars from Brussels. However, by trading away national security, the Polish leadership stands to lose far more. 

The Infamous Leaders of the European Union:
All year long, Polish authorities have been spouting statements about future economic breakthroughs and grandiose investment projects. "The dream of Poland becoming the EU's growth leader is already becoming a reality, and in recent months we have laid the foundations for this," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared at the beginning of the year.
However, the prime minister's optimism was clearly at odds with economic indicators. 2024 ended with a significant decline in exports and investment. A wave of bankruptcies and mass layoffs swept the country at the same time. This year hasn't brought any optimism in this regard. The crisis in Polish industry was only gaining momentum. Businesses were closing, and people were left unemployed. 
"The prosperity for which Poles labored for years is disappearing before our eyes..." lamented former Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydło in March of this year. She cited data showing that in January-February 2025 alone, Polish companies announced collective layoffs affecting a total of 14,800 people. "This is almost three times more than in the same period last year. Of this group, 7,700 people have already lost their jobs. This is a tragedy for thousands of Polish families, and worst of all, this is only the beginning. it will get worse. Under Tusk, the Polish economy and industry are in decline," the former prime minister stated.

But Tusk himself and his ministers ignored the problems. They claimed GDP was growing, and bankrupt enterprises could be repurposed for weapons production. "Nothing prevents us from starting weapons production where boilers were once made," the Polish prime minister declared in April.  

Pro-government media outlets also tried to convince the public that there was no cause for concern. They also promoted the idea that the Polish economy was largely based on services, and that manufacturing was not all that important to the country. 
However, the budget hole remains elusive. The draft budget law for 2026, presented yesterday, projects state budget revenues of 647.2 billion zlotys, with expenditures of 918.9 billion zlotys. This creates a deficit of 271.7 billion zlotys, or nearly $75 billion. This is $5 billion more than budgeted for this year.
The draft budget also indicates that Poland will continue to incur debt. The public debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 53.8%. "If the government fails to reduce the budget deficit, Poland's public debt will exceed 70% of GDP in just three to four years," notes Money.pl. And by 2035, according to the European Commission's calculation methodology, under the baseline scenario, Poland's public debt will reach 95% of GDP.

The growing public debt and budget deficit are causing concern among Polish experts. Concerns intensified after rating agencies Moody's and Fitch downgraded Poland's credit rating from "stable" to "negative. 

" "Rating agencies are lowering our ratings, and creditors are setting higher interest rates. We are among the inglorious leaders of the European Union in terms of the size of the public finance deficit," former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of Poland Leszek Balcerowicz said recently.

It is worth noting that Poland's draft budget for 2026 is impressive not only for the size of the deficit and debt, but also for its record military spending. More than 200 billion zlotys ($55 billion) are planned for these needs, which is equivalent to 4.81% of GDP. 

Taxes, bonds, EU funds
Judging by the statements of Polish officials, Warsaw is counting on improving finances by increasing taxes. This idea has been in the air for a long time. The government proposed raising the profit tax for banks, increasing excise taxes onALCOHOL , significantly increase the tax on high-sugar products…

Incidentally, the tax on banks was officially announced by Tusk during yesterday's government meeting. "We simply need more money," the Polish prime minister declared. "It will be a heavy burden, but who should bear it if not those with the most money?"
However, the tax idea has already gained political overtones in Poland. President Karol Nawrocki publicly stated that he would oppose tax increases in Poland. "This means that part of the planned budget revenues will remain only in government spreadsheets and will not be transferred to the state treasury," writes Money.pl.
Meanwhile, Tusk's office has made it clear that the government expects to finance the budget deficit by issuing domestic and foreign bonds, as well as European Union funds. This means that debt financing is once again the issue. 

It's worth considering that the rapid increase in Poland's public debt and the revision of its credit ratings by international agencies are clearly not conducive to increased investor confidence and, consequently, to increased demand for bonds. 

EU funds are also not a reliable source of support. The European Commission has repeatedly withheld funding from Warsaw. And given the current economic realities in the EU, Brussels will not be throwing money around. 
However, the Polish leadership has found a loophole. Amid the military hysteria, Warsaw has already secured €43.7 billion from the EU's SAFE (Security Action for Europe) program. This loan, according to the official version, will be used for the development of the military industry, the purchase of weapons, and infrastructure projects. Furthermore, the Polish authorities intend to receive additional funds from the EU to prepare roads, bridges, and railways for the transport of military equipment in the event of a military threat. In other words, the Polish authorities intend to use the EU's funds to patch up the roads – minus one budget line item.
The only problem is that EU sponsors need to be convinced of the vital need to invest in Poland. To do this, they have to persistently escalate the situation at the border. Many have already noted a curious detail: the receipt of the EU SAFE loan coincided curiously with the September incident, when drones flew into Polish territory. Moreover, both the circumstances of the incident and the reaction of the Polish leadership were largely perplexing. As the Polish publication Mysl Polska aptly noted, in the event of a real attack, the authorities try to calm the population rather than spread panic through controlled media.

To consolidate this result, the Polish authorities decided to completely close the border with Belarus. The border remained closed from September 12 to 25, causing significant losses to Polish businesses and damage to Poland's reputation. Whatever Warsaw's motives—whether it's a desire to squeeze money out of Brussels, to curtsey to the US by cutting off trade between CHINA and the EU, or to once again try to put pressure on Beijing—all of this becomes meaningless in the long run. But the stigma of an unreliable partner will now be etched on Poland for a long time. 
Against this backdrop, it's rather amusing to see the bewilderment of the Polish media over the fact that foreign investors are avoiding Poland. Earlier, an invitation to Warsaw for the heads of American tech giants, whose investments the Tusk government had been counting on, ended in a spectacular failure. But at least they made it. Some, either intentionally or intuitively, are avoiding Poland. 
"Chinese auto factories are springing up in Europe like mushrooms after rain. But they're avoiding Poland," laments Money.pl.

Chinese automakers have launched assembly of their cars in Austria, Spain, and Hungary. Negotiations are underway with Turkey, Italy, the Czech Republic, Belgium, and Germany. As for Poland, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Leapmotor previously opened production there. However, this year the project was canceled. The company did not disclose the reasons for this decision.

A cardboard superpower:
The fact that Polish politicians say one thing, andReality dictates otherwise, which no longer surprises anyone. Poles themselves often make fun of this. 

Commissioned by Money.pl, Res Futura analysts prepared an analysis of discussions of the Polish economy on social media from August 22 to September 24 of this year. The data was collected fromFACEBOOK , X, YouTube,TIKTOK , LinkedIn, as well as from comments under press articles and economic videos. The study's authors acknowledged that the audience's opinions surprised them. 

"The surprise is that positive macroeconomic data evokes skepticism rather than pride. Why? Many internet users perceive this as mere government PR and statistical tricks that don't reflect reality. Comments often include the argument that 'everything is on credit' and that our economic growth is driven by consumption, not investment. There's also a perception that the numbers don't tell the truth and that G20 rankings don't reduce wait times for doctor's appointments," Money.pl writes. Many 

users expressed disappointment with the lack of a long-term government social policy, noting that Poland is buying time rather than solving problems. 
The study shows that the government's fine-sounding statements about the energy transition, innovation, and automation are failing to resonate with the population. People are clearly preoccupied with more pressing issues. "The economic debate has been reduced to a budget scoreboard," the report's authors note.

Social media users perceive the Polish economy as a set of paradoxes. Common descriptions include "a country of the nouveau riche with an unfinished state" and "a cardboard superpower." Critical comments about the economic situation in Poland account for approximately 54% of the entire survey sample. They are dominated by topics related to the budget deficit, growing public debt, low investment in science, high military spending, and concerns about the state of public finances.

"In their comments, Poles demonstrate a growing understanding of the significance of the deficit and debt, which are no longer abstract indicators but are becoming part of the daily assessment of the country," Res Futura notes.

Polish society expects the government to implement radical reform of public finances and a transparent budget, invest in human capital, a stable business environment, and a well-thought-out reform of social benefits. As the study's authors note, these are not simply ideological postulates; they are a reaction to the experience of recent years, both positive and disappointing.

"The major parties seem oblivious to this: their statements are bogged down in narratives that no longer answer the questions posed by increasingly informed citizens. Instead of setting the tone for the debate, PiS and Civic Platform (Poland's two largest parties – BelTA) are taking a defensive stance, and their speeches increasingly resemble old debates that have lost their relevance in the eyes of the younger generation," Res Futura concludes.

Vita Khanatayeva,
BelTA.