Rabobank Expects Uncertainty in the Global Pork Sector in 2023

Rabobank expects a slight increase in pork trade in the first quarter of 2023, mainly due to a low base last year. However, sustaining growth through 2023 may be difficult given low production rates in major exporting regions, mainly the EU and the US . By contrast, Brazil, which continued to boost exports in 2022, is expected to increase production and exports this year. Further recovery/growth in local production in Southeast Asia and CHINA will mean lower demand for imports, especially in the second half of 2023.

China's reopening raises opportunities, but also uncertainties, about the global balance of supply and demand. When and how much demand in China will recover is unknown. Rabobank expects demand to develop unevenly due to ongoing covid waves, macroeconomic headwinds and weak business confidence.

North America: The US herd is at a tipping point as it returns to growth, but growth is slowing in Mexico and CANADA. Exports have increased from the US and Canada as pork is competitive in key markets.

Europe: Pork production in 2023, with some exceptions, will decline even more. Pork carcass prices continue to be supported by limited supply and high production costs.

China: Pork prices are falling due to short-term volatility, oversupply and weak demand amid high Covid infection rates. Demand is expected to recover at the end of the first quarter.

Brazil: Decreasing feed prices should improve margins, but Brazil needs stronger demand from China to balance supply growth

Southeast Asia: Southeast Asia is expected to see strong production growth in 2022 despite ASF exposure and high production costs. Continuous growth is expected in 2023.

Japan: Pork consumption remains at the same level, and storage capacity does not allow for an increase in imports.