The spread of African swine fever continues to affect the global outlook for pork

The spread of African swine fever (ASF) in the world is not slowing down. Rabobank says this will continue to affect the production and trade of pork producers around the world.

ASF cases in Germany and Italy raise risk of spread in Western Europe

The deadly swine virus remains active in Eastern Europe and has spread westward since its first appearance in Germany in September 2020.

The disease has jumped to private farms closer to the French and Dutch viruses. Meanwhile in Italy, the virus has moved from the initial outbreak to Rome, about 250 miles away.

Experts believe that human activities are to blame for the spread, as wild boar movements are usually limited to small areas. Whether cases are found in commercial farms or in wild boar populations, the result is the same: trade disruptions.

“However, ASF-related trade restrictions are disrupting European markets, creating an oversupply of certain products and putting pressure on prices,” Rabobank said in its third-quarter Global Pork Quarterly report. "The German is suffering from declining carcass prices as markets for large offal buyers such as CHINA and SOUTH KOREA remain closed."

ASF threatens swine production in Asia and North America

According to Rabobank, ASF continues to affect local production and prices in Asia. USDA estimates, due to massive culling and eradication caused by ASF, pork supply in Thailand could fall by more than 35% in 2022. The retail price of pork in Thailand has increased by 60% since September 2021.

“ASF, pork shortages and other factors have driven poultry prices up more than 40% over the same period,” Rabobank said. "In Vietnam and the Philippines, ASF is not going to stop."

Rabobank predicts that Philippine production will grow only marginally in 2022 compared to 2021, despite the government's disease control efforts. The report says that the herd population in Vietnam grew slowly in the first half of 2022, with the pig population gradually increasing.

According to Rabobank, ASF remains a problem in the Dominican Republic and Haiti but is still contained. Testing capabilities are being added and the industry is focused on reducing the spread of this virus.