Global Beef Market 2026: China Cuts Consumption, Increases Purchases; India Maintains Growth

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released an update on the livestock situation in CHINA and India, two Asian giants, and its forecasts for 2026.

In China's case, beef production is expected to fall from 7.8 million tonnes in 2025 to 7.56 million tonnes in 2026, as a result of slaughtering between 51 million and 49.5 million heads, in the same order.

With consumption falling due to lower-than-expected economic growth and a shift to cheaper meats (pork and poultry), China's domestic market is expected to shrink from 11.5 million to just under 11 million (a decline of almost 5%).

Rising domestic prices are also contributing to this. The curve shows that from 65 yuan (RMB) in 2018, it rose sharply, reaching between 85 and 90 from the beginning of 2021 to the first half of 2023. It then fell back to 65, and in recent months has risen to its current 70.

Translated into dollars at the current exchange rate, this amounts to approximately 10/kg in 2018, almost 13 in 2021–2023, and now back to 10.

As a result, imports , which amounted to 3.75 million units of electronic equipment in 2024 , are expected to decline to 3.4 million units this year for the first time in more than a decade, recouping some of the losses to reach 3.5 million units of electronic equipment.

Thus, the country will still remain the world's largest buyer.

For India, a very small increase in production is forecast, from 4.6 million to 4.7 million tonnes.

This growth is driven by rising consumption driven by population growth, low and stable inflation, rising household incomes and increased supplies of animals for slaughter.

It's worth noting that two-thirds of cattle are of the buffalo (bos) genus, and one-third are of the water buffalo (water buffalo). In eight of the country's 36 states, the slaughter of cattle is permitted only for MEAT , while there are no restrictions on water buffalo, which provide the majority of meat for consumption and EXPORT. Beef is sometimes cheaper than poultry, pork, and goat meat.

India's export volume is expected to remain at 1.55 million tonnes by 2025, with continued shipments to Malaysia, Egypt , the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but reduced shipments to Indonesia, Vietnam and Iraq, giving India the third-largest global position.