FAO expects meat production to rise and trade to stagnate in 2021

According to FAO, global MEAT production in 2021 should increase by 2.2 percent to 346 million tonnes, driven by a projected recovery in meat production in CHINA and a notable increase in production in Brazil, Viet Nam, the United States of America and the European Union, partly offsetting expected decline in production in Australia, the Philippines and Argentina.

The expected rise in China's meat production reflects a likely increase in production across all meats, especially pork, driven by large investments in value chains and biosecurity. Viet Nam is also expected to recover quickly from the decline in production caused by ASF. Despite contractions due to rising production, China continues to experience significant pork shortages, causing production to expand across all livestock systems, including in key supplying regions, especially Brazil and the European Union. Production expansion in Europe and North America is also supported by a slow recovery in the food service industry in line with successful covid-19 vaccinations, significant sanitation improvements, and government assistance provided to the livestock sector as part of efforts to stabilize the COVID-19 market. By contrast, meat production is likely to fall in Australia due to strong demand for herd rebuilding and in Argentina due to declining cattle stocks. In parts of Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, meat value chains have been under pressure from ongoing COVID-19-related market restrictions combined with rising feed prices, limited cattle supplies or drought.

Global trade in meat products in 2021 is projected to reach 42 million tonnes (carcass weight equivalent), almost unchanged from 2020, as the expected expansion in bovine and poultry meat trade is likely to be almost entirely offset by possible reduction in the pork and lamb trade. Overall, global meat trade is projected to be driven by China, with total meat purchases exceeding 11 million tons, driven by continued large meat supply shortfalls and demand for strategic stock replenishment despite increased domestic production.

International meat prices rose from January to May, reflecting robust import demand, especially from East Asia and the Middle East, amid limited expansion in global EXPORT supplies, despite recovery in production in key producing regions.