The Central Bank began to prepare for the scenario with the cancellation of exchange trading in the dollar

If the National Clearing Center and the Moscow Exchange fall under sanctions, currency trading will be paralyzed. In this case, the Central Bank plans to create an analogue of BLOOMBERG - a platform

The Bank of RUSSIA is discussing with market participants how to determine the exchange rate of the ruble against the DOLLAR and the euro if the National Clearing Center and Moscow Exchange fall under Western sanctions, FORBES reported, citing sources. The Central Bank confirmed to the publication that they are working on such a scenario.

According to Forbes, about two months ago, the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Ksenia Yudaeva, held a meeting with participants in foreign exchange trading. The scenario of imposing sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and the National Clearing Center (NCC) was discussed at the event, a source said.

According to another interlocutor, this is a tough option, in which all client funds in the NCC will be frozen and trading in dollars and euros on the Moscow Exchange will be stopped. He explained that the NCC does not have much of its own funds, and about $50 billion of client funds, and all of them are kept in foreign banks. A third source of the publication estimated this amount at $30-40 billion. These funds will be frozen in addition to $300 billion of Central Bank reserves already blocked due to sanctions, he said.

“Sanctions are constantly changing. To ensure the protection of customers and the uninterrupted operation of the financial system, the Bank of Russia is conducting simulations of various scenarios with market participants and infrastructure organizations, ”commented RBC to the Central Bank.

The Central Bank saw sanctions risks for the Russian currency accounting center

Back in mid-June, at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vladimir Chistyukhin advised to reduce foreign exchange positions in the NCC due to sanctions risks. A little later, the NCC sent out to the participants the regulations, according to which it will act in case of restrictions on the circulation of currencies. It said that in this case, the NCC would replace the currency of fulfillment of obligations under transactions on all markets of the Moscow Exchange, except for the urgent one, stop crediting and debiting the currency affected by the restrictions, and also stop accounting for it as collateral. In this case, the exchange rate will be determined as the sum of the central rate and the central value of the indicative rate calculated for the date of fulfillment of obligations.

The central rate and the central value of the indicative rate are the parameters that NCC sets for currency trading on the next day based on the results of trading on the previous day. The central rate is used to set the boundaries of the price corridor (the interval of exchange exchange rates that limits the prices of submitted orders for transactions with foreign currency), as well as the boundaries of the market risk assessment range (this is the range of exchange rates beyond which the exchange rate will not go beyond with a given level of probability). The central value of the indicative rate is the swap difference, which is determined by the clearing house.

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The regulation, which was sent to market participants, was approved back in 2014. If there is no auction, this settlement mechanism will be relevant only on the date of their closing. How to determine the course further is not described in the document.

“The exchange rate of the dollar will no longer exist, but exports and imports will remain, so you need to understand at what rate to exchange rubles. The Central Bank does not want to take on the function of determining the rate, ”says one of Forbes’ interlocutors. In this case, according to him, it was decided to create a Russian analogue of Bloomberg - an over-the-counter platform to which the largest banks will provide their quotes. The rate will be determined based on the quotes of the ten largest banks, but the algorithm for determining the rate is still being developed, the source said. “For the general public, this will be the Central Bank rate, for large participants the mechanism will be transparent,” he added. According to the publication, a number of banks have already received a scheme - a settlement mechanism.

If the US imposes blocking sanctions against the NCC, the currency section of the Moscow Exchange will become the place of circulation of the currencies of countries that have not introduced restrictive measures, the HEAD of one of the major brokers said in an interview with the publication. In his opinion, the yuan will then become the most liquid asset in the currency section.