For the first time since the beginning of the special operation, the Central Bank recorded the optimism of business

Business began to look positively into the future: the business climate index in June for the first time since the beginning of the special operation went into plus, the Central Bank estimates showed. Despite the sanctions,companies expect a recovery in demand, taking into account the development of new markets

The business climate indicator monitored by the Bank of RUSSIA on a monthly basis returned to the positive zone in June (seasonally adjusted). The improvement in the business climate is recorded for the second month in a row, but the indicator turned out to be positive for the first time since the start of the special operation - plus 0.4 points in June against minus 1.5 points in May. This is stated in the latest issue of “Enterprise Monitoring”, prepared by the Bank of Russia.

The Central Bank's business climate indicator reflects actual as well as expected changes in production and demand, determined on the basis of a survey of enterprises participating in the monitoring. Expectations are estimates of enterprises regarding the dynamics of indicators in the next three months.

Among the reasons for the improvement in the business climate in June, analysts of the Central Bank name the slowed contraction of demand and the ongoing adjustment of production to the new economic conditions.

“Despite significant sanctions restrictions, companies expect a further recovery in demand and production volumes, taking into account the development of new markets,” the Central Bank said in a statement.

Nevertheless, the Bank of Russia forecasts a decline in Russia's real GDP by 4–6% in 2022 and by 1–4% in 2023.

The most confident improvement in the current business conditions was noted by mining companies. Basically, they attribute this to the possibility of redirecting Russian energy exports from the European market to other countries. Expectations of companies in the wholesale trade sector continued to improve as the ruble strengthened and parallel imports were allowed.

In most industries, there is a slowdown in the decline in production, but there are exceptions - the transportation and storage industries, where the situation remains difficult due to disruption of logistics, difficulties in cross-border movement of goods, suspension of deliveries, as well as rising transportation costs.

Read on RBC Pro Pro The price of gold has drawn a “cross of death”.What is it and why is it dangerous Articles Pro Rescue from the heat:how to deal with a summer sales slump Instructions Pro Eight signs thatthat an employee can quit Articles Pro Fast food and exercises for the brain:Keeping fit Warren Buffett Pro Articles What you need to know about buying property in Thailand:nuances and tips Articles Pro How to remove sanctions from a person or company.Step by Step Instructions Pro Five luxury brands go public.What is important to know about the Lanvin Group Articles Pro Sleep 8 hours a day and be lazy:Jeff Bezos Healthy Habits Articles

The business climate indicator reached its minimum value (minus 25 points) at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.

Optimism was also shown by the sentiment index of small and medium-sized businesses, which is tracked by Opora Rossii together with PSB and Magram Market Research. In June, this indicator also entered the growth zone, although since March 2022 it has been in the area of ​​negative expectations. The index was 50.5 points against 48.4 in May (an index value above 50 points means an increase in business activity and vice versa). The interviewed entrepreneurs noted an increase in sales, investments, satisfaction with loans and an increase in hiring.