BordBia predicts an increase in Irish beef exports

According to a recently published forecast, the value of beef exports in 2021 reached 2.1 billion euros. The outlook for this year is positive for the sector.

According to a recent forecast published by BordBia, the value of Irish beef exports is up 9% in 2021, although overseas shipments have declined. The total value of Irish beef exports last year was 2.1 billion euros, as the presence of products increased in international markets (22% compared to 19% in 2020) and in the EU single market (45% compared to 41% in 2020). ). At the same time, deliveries to the UK market fell to 33% from 37% two years ago.

Ireland's cattle population fell by 6% (98,000 HEAD) in 2021 to 1.7 million head, as cattle stocks remained limited, according to the government. This has helped support cattle prices in Ireland throughout the year, with an average R3 bull slaughter price in 2021 of €4.31/kg, up 12% (43p/kg) from a year earlier. Cattle slaughter in Ireland is expected to recover somewhat in 2022, by an estimated 70-80,000 heads (+3-4%). Stock data suggests that much of the increase in production in 2022 will occur later, with an obvious increase in the number of cattle aged 18-24 months. 

In terms of volume, total Irish beef exports fell by 12% last year but, as mentioned above, their value has risen due to a shortage of beef in the world market. The outlook for this year depends largely on regaining access to key markets such as CHINA and the UK, as well as food service sales.

“The outlook for Irish beef exports to the EU27 and the UK remains broadly positive for 2022, with markets relatively balanced in terms of supply and demand. Global market demand appears to remain strong as global supplies look set to be constrained going forward as a result of pressure on production in both North and South America following drought conditions in both regions in 2021. Market demand for Irish beef will be driven by strong demand from our key UK customers and continued free access to this market in 2022.

While some growth in non-EU beef imports can be expected in 2022, a recovery in demand from the catering sector and an increase in exports to international markets should maintain positive market momentum. China 's demand for beef imports continues to rise and is expected (according to the USDA ) to reach 3.25 million tons in 2022. A return to earlier levels of import demand and growing interest in Irish beef in Japan should also lead to growth in the Asian market.

“The supply of Irish cattle to the market is expected to increase in the second half of 2022. Analysis of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Marine Transportation's Animal Identification and Movement (AIM) database of the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Marine and related production and trade factors indicates an increase of 50,000 head (+3%) in the supply of finished livestock for 2022 as a whole,” Irish analysts added in their report.

On the other hand, the British AHDB report mentions a possible rise in prices for Irish beef in this market. “According to our own forecasts, more beef is expected to be sold through the UK food service market in 2022, although not as much as before the pandemic, due to business closures and the transition of employees to work from home on a full-time basis. These factors are expected to be positive for Irish exports in 2022. Projected growth in the production of price-competitive Irish produce and expectations of increased demand for beef from the British foodservice market are likely to make Irish imports even more attractive in 2022. In terms of price, any shift in demand for beef from retail back to catering is likely to