Australia: What does 2024 hold for lamb producers?

The survey results show that 49% of 2023 lambs will be sold in the first half of 2024 , up from 2023's 46%. This will smooth out the supply of lambs over a longer period, with fewer lambs sold this spring as a percentage of the total flock.

This retention of lambs until the first half of calendar year 2024 means prices could remain low for some time as supply does not appear to be tightening. This result is interesting given that last week Australia recorded its highest ever lamb slaughter total of around 500,000 HEAD.

Survey results show sheep producer sentiment in both the wool and lamb sectors has fallen over the past year. Lamb industry sentiment has fallen 109 points over the past 12 months, from +67 in October 2023 to -42 in October this year. Sentiment for the wool industry also fell, but to a lesser extent. Wool sentiment fell just 27 points, from +12 last year to -15 now.

Prices and weather are the main factors behind low confidence in the sheep sector. Interestingly, with sentiment in the wool industry being higher than in the lamb sector, we may be seeing a reversal of the recent trend towards more beef sheep. This trend will take time to recover and could impact breed demographics in 2024 and beyond.

The study collects data on the sales channels used by sheep producers. The data shows that manufacturers use an average of 1.3 different sales channels – with 50% of manufacturers using marketplaces to some extent – ​​up from 58% last year. Seasonal conditions and the desire of producers to ensure available processing space and price have led to a 50% increase in the number of sheep sold under forward contracts. Producers have decreased their use of online channels as herd recovery slowed and restocking trends became less active in the market.