Moody's names seven risks for G20 economies

In total, the agency's experts counted seven main risks that threaten the development of the economies of the G20 countries; at the same time, the Ukrainian crisis, judging by its consequences and threats,

Most of the G20 economies will maintain “favorable growth rates” in 2022 and 2023, but there are risks that could cloud and undermine this forecast, Moody's experts said in their review of the global macroeconomics.

In total, they saw seven global risks:

Escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and broader oil and gas sanctions .
In this case, there would be a sharp increase in world prices for oil , gas and food, "which would make basic commodities unaffordable for households around the world." In this case, Europe is threatened with a recession, and energy and food importers will face a drop in economic activity. Prolonged supply chain disruptions .
As long as the Chinese government maintains the current policy to combat the covid pandemic, the risks of periodic closures of factories and ports in the PRC remain, and this implies high risks of disruptions in supply chains around the world. Bigger-than-expected economic slowdown in CHINA .
In the event of a downturn in the real estate market and the aggravation of the consequences of quarantine in China, countries and companies trading there will be at risk. At the same time, the decline in commodity prices, caused by a drop in demand from China , partially offsets the price shock in commodity markets. Tightening monetary policy .
Monetary policy affects the economy through lending with a significant lag. Thus, there is a risk that the full effects of monetary tightening will begin to be felt at a time when consumer demand is already slowing down. The consequences of simultaneously raising interest rates and shrinking central banks' balance sheets may be less favorable than central banks themselves expect. Adjusting monetary policy to slow demand and lower inflation will be difficult and error-prone. Social risks .
The incomplete recovery of economies from the pandemic leads to falling incomes and jobs, as well as rising costs of living. This can cause disillusionment in national and international institutions and become a breeding ground for protectionist policies and the rise to power of populist leaders. Not only developing countries, but also countries with developed economies are not immune from this. Other geopolitical risks .
The growing role of China and emerging markets in the world population, economy and financial flows has led to the fact that their voices on the international stage have become more powerful. At the same time, geopolitical differences that push China and RUSSIA against the United Statesand other Western powers have intensified over the past two years. If more and more economic decisions are determined by geopolitics, the world will enter a period of greater uncertainty and less predictability, and the gains from the globalization process of the 1990s and 2000s may be “reversed”. New Waves of Epidemics .
More than two years after the start of the pandemic, most countries are lifting restrictions designed to slow the spread of the virus and are moving back to normal. But progress could be hampered if new vaccine-resistant and dangerous variants of the virus emerge.

After Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, Western countries introduced several packages of sanctions against Moscow. The HEAD of the US Department of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, at a forum in Davos on May 24, said that the goal of US sanctions is to stop hostilities in Ukraine, including by depriving Russia of the benefits of participating in the global economy.

“They must be denied the benefits of a global economy and global economic order for the long haul. These EXPORT restrictions will not disappear anytime soon,” Raimondo said at the time.

DIRECTOR of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Birichevsky called the measures against Russia "outright robbery" and "raider seizure." He stated that the "double-edged sanctions weapon" will affect all countries of the world.