The US will maintain a ban on Mexican cattle exports until 2026.

Live cattle exports from Mexico to the United States face uncertain prospects. According to experts and agricultural sector leaders, the ban imposed by US HEALTH authorities could last until 2026, directly affecting domestic producers.

What do USDA forecasts say?

Juan Antonio Hinojosa, a risk management consultant at Stonex Financial, explained that the latest data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) does not predict a quick reopening of the market.

This year, the USDA projects exports of 240,000 HEAD of cattle , up 1.35 million from last year. But the most interesting thing is that by 2026, they project we'll produce 8.7 million head of cattle and EXPORT nothing. That could change, but these are the latest official figures from the USDA, released last month. "They don't expect us to export cattle to the United States in 2026," Hinojosa said.

At these estimates, Mexican production will remain active, but without the US market, which is the main buyer of the country's cattle.

The MEAT problemflies

The sanitary closure was prompted by the discovery of the blowfly, a pest that seriously damages livestock and can take years to eradicate.

According to Jorge Esteve Recolons, president of the National Agricultural Council (CNA), the restoration of sanitary status will depend on progress in pest control and the preparedness of US authorities.

"I don't know about the opening; I don't have the opportunity to see it. I know that the Minister (of Agriculture) Julio Berdegué is doing a very good job; he's coordinating visits from Americans to reassure them," the CNA leader said.

Regionalization: demands of producers

A viable solution for Mexican cattle ranchers would be for the United States to adhere to regionalization agreements. Under this arrangement, restrictions would apply only to areas where blowfly outbreaks have been reported, primarily in the southeast of the country, and not to the northern states, which are the main exporters and are more than 1,400 kilometers away.

Sector representatives insist that without such recognition there is a risk of prolonged economic losses and the creation of a surplus of livestock without a market.