USDA raises export and import forecast for 2024

FY 2024 exports are now projected at $170.5 billion and imports are estimated at $201.0 billion. The $30.5 billion agricultural trade deficit would be the largest trade deficit ever and nearly double the current record in $16.7 billion in fiscal year 2023.

EXPORT

The USDA Economic Research Service reported that “exports of livestock and dairy products and grains and feed led increases (exports), more than offsetting declines in supplies of oilseeds and their products. Overall, livestock, poultry and dairy exports are projected to rise $1.4 billion to $37.7 billion.”

Beef exports are projected to exceed the November forecast by $700 million, pork exports will be $600 million higher and dairy exports will be $500 million higher.

Total grain and feed exports are forecast at $38.2 billion, up $700 million from November, as higher exports of corn, sorghum, rice, and feed and forage more than offset moderate declines in wheat exports." reports the USDA. “Exports of oilseeds and other products are forecast at $36.2 billion, down $1.0 billion from the previous quarter, almost entirely due to lower soybean volumes and values ​​as a result of increased competition in South America.

Import

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service reported that the increase in agricultural imports "was driven primarily by an increase in beef imports, which increased from $1.2 billion to $10.1 billion." Limited U.S. supply coupled with robust demand is expected to drive increased supply of processed beef at higher unit costs.”

Pork imports are forecast $100 million higher than the November forecast, live cattle imports are also forecast $100 million higher, and dairy imports are forecast $200 million lower than the November forecast.

Grain and feed imports increased $500 million from the November forecast to $22.4 billion, largely due to expectations for continued growth in processed grain products, the USDA said. “Overall, pet food imports were down slightly, with the exception of pet food from CANADA. Food grain imports are expected to rise in FY2024 mainly driven by rice imports.”

“The February 2024 import forecast is 2.9 percent higher than FY 2023 imports, which remains below the 7 percent average annual import growth rate over the past 20 years,” the USDA reports.