NKR experts assessed the impact of sanctions on various sectors of the economy

NKR experts analyzed the resistance of key sectors of the Russian economy to sanctions pressure. In their opinion, the greatest negative impact of Western sanctionswill have on aviation,telecommunications and ferrous metallurgy

The Russian economy faced unprecedented external pressure in 2022, and its various sectors turned out to be differently prepared for the new reality, experts from the NKR rating agency (part of the RBC group) note in the study “Strength test. Assessing the Resilience of Key Sectors of the Russian Economy to the Negative Impact of Changed External Conditions”. 

The study is structured like a traffic light: red indicates factors that carry additional risks for a particular industry, yellow indicates a mixed effect, and green indicates that they contribute to maintaining sustainability. 

The industries that may suffer more than others due to the sanctions crisis in the NKR include the following:

Air transportation. They will suffer both from sanctions restrictions on flights, as well as from the expected shortage of spare parts and the lack of regular fleet maintenance from authorized companies. Ferrous metallurgy. The main difficulties in the industry are related to logistics, as well as the increase in the tax burden that occurred during the pandemic. Telecommunications and communications.A number of key manufacturers of telecommunications equipment have stopped work, sales and deliveries to Russia, which threatens to degrade the infrastructure. Read on RBC Pro Pro Glasses, lenses, surgery:

Sanctions traffic light: how bans affect different sectors of the economy Pro

According to NKR analysts, the most crisis-resistant industries include:

Food industry. Russia as a whole independently covers the needs of the domestic market for basic food, the share of imported food products for final consumption has been steadily declining in recent years, the study notes. Extraction of oil and gas. In the opinion of the NKR, the embargo imposed on the purchase of Russian oil by the United States , the European Union and Great Britain will not block the industry's internal advantages, which include good funding conditions against the backdrop of a favorable price environment and the priority of state support. Agriculture.In the short term, agricultural prices are expected to stabilize in Russia as the new crop matures against the backdrop of favorable weather conditions and the search for new logistics solutions. In addition, state subsidies also make a positive contribution. Non-ferrous metallurgy. The global energy transition will ensure long-term growth in demand for non-ferrous metals, while global logistics problems and concerns about the stability of supplies in 2022 will lead to moderate shortages in the markets and support prices for them at a high level, the study says.

Read the full version of the study in the material RBC Pro.