The Ministry of Economic Development sharply raised the forecast for the growth of Russian GDP

The Ministry of Economic Development of RUSSIA informed the regions about the "certain parameters" of the updated forecast of the country's socio-economic development (in its basic version) for 2022 and the planned period of 2023–2024. This information is “preliminary”, follows from a letter from the Ministry of Economic Development to the heads of the subjects dated July 8 (RBC has a copy, its authenticity was confirmed by the press service of the department).

In April, the Ministry of Economic Development presented the scenario conditions for the forecast, from which it followed that real GDP growth in 2021 is expected at the level of 2.9%. Now, the department of Maxim Reshetnikov predicts economic growth of 3.8%, despite new administrative restrictions on business activity in a number of regions due to the third wave of covid-19 . The most severe restrictions in June against the backdrop of an increase in the incidence of CORONAVIRUS and deaths from it were introduced in Moscow, including the closure of food courts. Moscow accounts for almost 21% of the total regional product in Russia, according to Rosstat data.

A 3.8% GDP recovery rebound in 2021 (after declining by 3% last year) will be the fastest economic growth since 2012, with an average annual growth of less than 0.5% in 2014-2020, follows from Rosstat data.

“The old scenario conditions were formed in March based on data for January-February. Now [appeared] data for April-May, the economy is recovering faster than we expected. <...> We expect to reach the pre-crisis level already this month,” a representative of the Ministry of Economic Development told reporters. According to him, the potential for economic recovery has not yet been exhausted. “We certainly take into account the current situation with the pandemic,” he stressed.