Economists propose to change the budget rule in Russia

Experts from the Higher School of Economics (HSE) suggested considering the possibility of changing the budget rule in Russia, which has been in force since 2017. Given the “changing nature of threats to fiscal balance,” it would be advisable to strengthen the countercyclical nature of the fiscal rule (a mechanism for automatically easing fiscal policy during crises and tightening it during an upward economic cycle. - ), HSE economists led by Natalia Akindinova said in a flagship report (.pdf ), presented on April 13 at the school's April conference.

According to the authors, it would be reasonable to include in the formula for federal budget expenditures, in addition to oil prices , an additional indicator that “will be positive if the dynamics of the basic industries (as well as GDP and other indicators) are negative and negative if the dynamics are good.” This will ensure a higher level of budget spending while reducing non-oil and gas revenues.

In the case of high oil prices and good dynamics of other basic indicators, more money will be withdrawn into reserves (not only in the amount of oil and gas excess profits), follows from the HSE proposal.

The second proposal from the HSE is the preventive development of a set of anti-crisis measures with a specified limit on their financing, which the government could quickly resort to in the event of economic crises. According to the authors of the report, this would allow avoiding the usual deadlines and procedures for coordinating budget spending. Economists do not indicate whether these two proposals are combined.