USDA continues to lower its food price forecast

The USDA noted that retail egg prices declined 10.9% in March 2023 after falling 6.7% in February, but remained 36.0% above March 2022 prices. Egg prices are projected to rise by 17.8% in 2023, with forecasts ranging from 5.1% to 32.9%. The wide forecast range reflects retail price volatility caused by the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza.

USDA forecasts that prices will rise for other meats (5.9%), poultry (2.8%), dairy products (4.95%), fats and oils (12.8%), processed fruits and vegetables ( 9.9%), sugar and sweets (10.1%), cereals and baked goods (11.7%), soft drinks (9.9%) and other food products (9.2%).

Beef and veal prices are projected to decline by 0.5% in 2023 (range -6.2% to 5.8%), while pork prices are projected to fall 2.0% (range -6. 8% to 3.3%). Fresh fruit prices are expected to decline by 0.5% this year (range -4.3% to 3.7%).

At the farm level, USDA forecasts cattle prices to increase 13.8% (range 2.5% to 27.2%), egg prices to jump 24.4% (range -18.3% to 111.3%) and milk prices will fall by 23.9% (range -37.0% to -6.0%). The USDA forecasts wholesale beef prices to rise 3.6% (range -9.3% to 19.4%). Wholesale prices are expected to decrease by 4.8% for pork (range -12.9% to 4.7%), 9.8% for poultry (range -16.8% to -1.8%) and 5.9% on dairy products (range -12.5% ​​to 1.5%).