US: Broiler Market Outlook Week 9, March 3, 2025

Forecast broiler production for 2025 has been revised downwards in the first half of the year but upwards in the second half, leaving the overall forecast unchanged. Broiler exports have been revised downwards, reflecting international competition. Forecast quarterly broiler prices have been revised downwards to reflect recent price trends. Forecast table egg production has been revised downwards due to recent disease pressure resulting in reduced layer flocks. Forecast egg prices have been revised upwards in volume terms, also reflecting recent price trends. Forecast egg exports in 2025 have been revised downwards, reflecting reduced production expectations as well as less competitive pricing. Turkey production has been revised downwards in 2025, reflecting low hatchery occupancy as well as disease pressure. Turkey EXPORT expectations were revised downward based on lower production expectations, and turkey price forecasts were revised downward based on recent price trends.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has raised its 2025 egg price forecast to 41.1%. The price range has risen 15.0% to 74.9%, more than double the 20.3% increase it predicted in January. USDA began its 2025 egg price forecast in July 2024 , expecting them to decline 7.6% from 2024.

“Retail egg prices increased 13.8% in January 2025, following an 8.4% increase in December 2024,” the USDA detailed. Retail egg prices continue to experience month-to-month volatility due to the avian influenza outbreak that began in 2022. Avian influenza contributes to higher egg prices by reducing laying hen flocks and egg production. About 18.8 million commercial layers were affected by the virus in January 2025, the highest monthly total since the outbreak began in 2022.

Egg prices in January were 53% higher than January 2024 and “exceeded the previous peak price in January 2023,” the USDA said.

With egg prices rising, the Trump administration is developing a new approach to bird flu. The Trump administration will emphasize vaccinations and enhanced biosecurity measures instead of mass culling of chickens in the event of an outbreak. National Economic Council (NEC) DIRECTOR Kevin Hassett is reviewing various proposals that may have already been presented to President Donald Trump late last week. While Hassett did not divulge many details about the new approach, he did mention that it would involve a “better, smarter perimeter” around poultry farms. He argues that it is illogical to kill all the chickens within that perimeter when the disease is spread by wild ducks and geese.

The National Chicken Council (NCC) has petitioned the FDA to overturn a regulation that bars broiler industry eggs from entering the food supply, arguing that the move could reduce record-high egg prices caused by the bird flu outbreak. The 2009 rule forces broiler producers to throw away excess hatching eggs instead of selling them to processors, despite government risk assessments that confirm they are safe. If granted, the request would allow nearly 400 million eggs a year to be used in processed products like bread, pasta, and mayonnaise , easing the strain on the table egg supply. As we’ve noted before, the NCC previously asked for relief from the Biden administration in 2023 but was denied. Now, with egg prices soaring, the organization is calling on the Trump administration to act quickly.

 Dynamics of prices and sales volumes of broilers

Average weighted price of broilers by region

Region

Average weighted price, cents/lb

Sales volume (thousand pounds)

Week 7

Week 8

Growth per week,%

Week 7

Week 8

Growth per week,%

Oriental

124.27

121.72

-2.1%

4 485

4 832

7.7%

Central

118.77

119.29

0.4%

2 664

2 596

-2.6%

West

138.53

137.02

-1.1%

2 990

3 025

1.2%

Dynamics of prices for chicken cuttings

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