Russia confirmed its status as a net exporter

The volume of external deliveries in 2022 exceeded $41 billion — this is a new record for domestic exporters of food and agricultural raw materials. Russian suppliers were able to adapt to the new working conditions and redistribute EXPORT flows in certain directions. Some sectors failed to outperform previous figures, with shipments of pork, dairy and confectionery falling. However, manufacturers and experts are optimistic for this year. As a result, agricultural exports may increase by another 5-10%.

Exportagricultural products in 2022 approached $41.3 billion, follows from the report of the Federal Customs Service, published in mid-March. In 2021, according to the updated estimate of the service, the volume of exports amounted to $35.9 billion. Thus, the increase in supplies in value terms reached 14.8%. The federal center Agroexport, in its review a month after the publication of the FCS data, estimated the total export of agricultural products at $41.6 billion.

The estimates of both departments are a new record for Russian food exporters, comments Andrey Dalnov, HEAD of the Center for Industry Expertise of the Russian Agricultural Bank. The double-digit growth dynamics from the last year's record was ensured by historically high prices in the main markets for domestic producers of grains, oilseeds and their products, the constant search for new directions for sales, as well as the removal by CHINA of "pandemic" bans on the supply of products of the Russian fishery complex in ports Dalian and Qingdao. Without these restrictions, which were still in effect at the beginning of last year, the figure of Russian exports could be even higher, the expert believes. Among the positive trends, he also highlights the rapid growth in shipments of products of deep processing of grain and oilseeds. In particular,

The increase in the export of agricultural products in value terms is due to the conjuncture of the global agricultural market, agrees Daniil Kozlov, head of the environmental monitoring department of the Agroanalytics Center of the Ministry of Agriculture. Over the past year, there has been strong demand and a record increase in the value of Russia's leading agricultural exports, such as wheat, corn, sunflower and soybean oils, cake and feed additives, soybeans, wheat FLOUR, rapeseed, he lists .

In actual prices, the volume of exports of agricultural products and foodstuffs exceeded $40 billion, but in comparable prices it decreased by 0.6%, to $28.9 billion, Svetlana Silenina, head of the Consumer Market direction of the INFOLine group of companies, draws attention. Nevertheless, for the third year in a row in the modern history of the country, agro-industrial complex exports exceeded imports: the positive trade balance amounted to $5.5 billion (in 2021 - $2.8 billion), which allowed RUSSIA to maintain its status as a net exporter.

Growth Drivers

According to Agroexport, the largest share in agricultural exports from Russia last year was traditionally occupied by grain (32.3%). Followed by oil and fat productsand other agricultural products, fish and seafood, food and processing industry products. Compared to 2021, the largest growth in export earnings is observed in the products of the oil and fat industry (by 24.7%), in the sector of other agricultural products (by 23.4%), as well as in the grain segment (by 17.6%).

The best indicators for increasing the volume of foreign trade were achieved by enterprises producing the most demanded products on the world market, says Kozlov. First of all, it highlights grains and oilseeds. In addition, processors of agricultural products, as well as producers of flour, rapeseed and soybean oils, achieved good results, he points out. In particular, Rusagro Group increased the export revenue of the oil and fat segment by 12% (by 6.5 billion rubles), to 61.1 billion rubles, Silenin cites the example.

The products of the oil and fat industry have been and remain one of the main drivers of exports of the domestic agro-industrial complex, along with grain, confirms Kirill Lozovoy, an analyst at the OleoScope information and analytical agency. According to IAA estimates, last year, domestic enterprises in the sector sent 8.22 million tons of goods abroad, which is 7.5% more than in 2021. “This increase in volumes occurred against the backdrop of favorable market conditions, a record harvestoilseeds, the current duties on their shipments abroad and, as a result, the expansion of the output of finished products, the expert explains. — The less active presence of Ukrainian sunflower oil on the world market also contributed to greater demand for Russian products in this industry. In addition, the factor of carryover of raw materials from the last season played an important role, which ensured a high loading of oil refineries and an increase in the export of finished products from the very beginning of the 2022/23 agricultural year.”

In terms of money, the export of the oil and fat industry increased by 22%, to $8.94 billion, which is primarily due to the increase in world prices, especially in the first half of last year, continues Lozovoy. If we talk about individual products, according to OleoScope, vegetable oils showed good dynamics - sunflower, soybean and rapeseed. In total, about 4.86 million tons of them were sent abroad (350 thousand tons more than a year earlier) for $7.14 billion (+$1.45 billion). In physical terms, the supply of meals also increased - from 2.72 million tons in 2021 to almost 3 million tons last year. Although the monetary indicator remained almost at the same level - $ 1.045 billion against $ 1.073 billion, respectively.

In 2022, the trade turnover between Russia and the European Union reached the highest indicator in the last eight years, while importsof all goods from Russia turned out to be at a historical maximum, RIA Novosti calculated based on Eurostat data. A significant increase in the volume of imports to the EU from Russia was also shown by the agro-industrial complex sector. As Eurostat told Agroinvestor, the total import of the main positions of Russian food and agricultural products last year increased by 18.5% compared to 2021, to almost €3.2 billion. The main part of agricultural products was not affected by

EU sanctions . therefore, in general, the structure of agricultural exports from Russia to the EU countries has not changed much, explains Daniil Kozlov from the Center for Agroanalytics. In addition, the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate and world food inflation played a serious role .

In 2022 Russiaincreased supplies to the EU countries of fats and oils of vegetable and animal origin - by 57.9% in value terms, by 30.7% - in kind, finished products from MEAT, fish, crustaceans, etc. - by 10.1% and 69 .6%, respectively, calculated Nadezhda Kanygina, an analyst at the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies. At the same time, for a number of products, there was a significant decline (by a third - in half) both in money and in tons, she notes. In particular, exports to the EU of dairy products, coffee , tea, cocoa, SUGAR, drinks, vegetable and fruit processing products, and flour confectionery products have decreased.

Exports of all oilseeds (including niche ones) in 2022 increased by 58% compared to the previous year, to 3.26 million tons, according to Lozovoy. In particular, the export of sunflower seeds amounted to 206 thousand tons, which is 2.2 times higher than in 2021. Shipments of soybeans reached 1.3 million tons (+32%), and rapeseed - 750 thousand tons (2.7 times more than a year earlier).

The main importer of oil and fat products, as in 2021, remained Turkey , which purchased 1.45 million tons worth $1.52 billion. The second position is China , where 1.24 million tons of fat and oil products worth $1.53 billion were sent. In addition, the largest buyers in 2022 were Belarus, Latvia, India and Iran, informs the expert. Russia also continues to strengthen its position in those export markets that remain its highest priority: primarily the regions of Asia, Africa and the Middle East, where domestic oil and fat companies are now actively developing.

Last year, sanctions had an additional impact on the availability of export infrastructure, recalls Lozovoy. The cost of transport services and cargo insurance has increased, barriers to access to freight have been created, and access to ports of unfriendly countries for Russian ships has been limited. However, market participants were not only able to adapt to work in such conditions, but also demonstrate high sales figures, he emphasizes.

The export of grain and leguminous crops from Russia in 2022 is estimated at 45.5 million tons against 45.6 million tons a year earlier, however, according to the results of the year, the export of grain processing products increased, the INFOLine expert emphasizes. Thus, the volume of shipments of flour abroad amounted to 881 thousand tons. The increase in exports was facilitated by the introduced export duties on grain.

But the president of the Russian Union of Flour and Cereal Enterprises, Arkady Gurevich, is sure that the grain export duty has an extremely negative effect on the export of flour. “If grain exports continue to be so limited, and world pricesgo up, which is likely to happen, then flour exports may stop,” he said. “The main reason for the growth in demand for Russian flour is the fact that it was not possible to fully export grain.” According to him, Russia can annually export an additional 5-7 million tons of flour, but the world does not need such an amount of flour. The maximum global demand for this product is up to 15 million tons, the expert says.

In the ranking of the largest grain exporters, the Rif trading house continues to occupy the leading position in terms of volume. In 2022, the company delivered abroad more than 6 million tons of wheat and over 890 thousand tons of barley. In total, the volume of exported products exceeded 7 million tons (in 2021 - 8 million tons), the press service of Rif reports. The main export directions of the company have always been the countries of Asia and the East, and, despite the political situation in the world, it managed to maintain the list of sales markets without loss to itself.

The volume of seed supplies to other countries of the breeding and seed division of EkoNiva Group of Companies - EkoNiva-Seeds - in 2022 remained at the average annual level - about 5 thousand tons, informs a representative of the agricultural holding. The undisputed leader in procurement is Kazakhstan. Mainly seeds of spring crops are supplied to the republic: wheat, barley, peas, soybeans, flax. For these crops, growth is observed annually. Shipments of winter wheat seeds are gradually increasing to the southern regions of the country. “We see a noticeable increase in exports to Kyrgyzstan, where we send seeds of wheat, including winter wheat, barley and peas,” adds a company representative. As for commodity items, in 2022 EkoNiva-Semena became one of the largest Russian exporters of red lentils, having shipped over 10.4 thousand tons to foreign partners. In

meat, the dynamics is mostly positive.

The increase in the volume of supplies of meat products continues. Meat exports are already steadily exceeding $1 billion, Dalnov notes. Just 10 years ago addictionThis market from imports was significant, and now its conjuncture is almost completely determined by the dynamics of Russian production - supplies of domestic pork, broiler meat, and turkey are expanding. In the future, lamb may be added to the drivers , the expert predicts.

In total, about 650 thousand tons of meat products were sent to other countries (100 thousand tons more than a year earlier), Silenina adds. For example, Cherkizovo increased foreign supplies of chicken meat by more than 20% (up to 75 thousand tons), pork - by 15% (up to 15 thousand tons). The export of poultry meat products produced by GAP Resurs added 15% to the result of 2021 and amounted to 144 thousand tons, she knows.

Due to the growth in poultry meat output, its export from year to year is really becoming more dynamic, confirms Sergey Lakhtyukhov, DIRECTOR General of the National Union of Poultry Breeders. In 2022, the volume of exports in physical terms increased by 15% (to more than 350 thousand tons). Such dynamics is due to a significant increase in the supply of frozen broiler carcasses - almost 1.5 times - as well as the active development of turkey exports.

Since 2019 , Russian companies have expanded the export of poultry by 68%, and the import of this type of meat over this period has decreased by 21% and no longer exceeds 180 thousand tons.and the Persian Gulf," Lakhtyukhov points out. The increase in live weight in these areas only last year amounted to 35 thousand tons (+56%) and 25 thousand tons (+68%), respectively. And if the growth in volumes in relation to the EAEU countries is largely due to constant joint work to resolve issues in terms of non-tariff regulatory measures, then in relation to the Persian Gulf countries, this situation is due to the fact that over the past few years, Russian manufacturers have been purposefully expanding their presence in these promising markets.

As for China, then, although the relative share of poultry meat exports there has decreased since 2020 by 10%, to 39%, its absolute value annually shows positive dynamics, and the decrease in the share is caused by outstripping growth in other areas, which means export diversification, the expert adds. “Of course, there are certain logistical difficulties due to the emerging geopolitical situation, which, in turn, leads to a decrease in supplies in some non-defining areas, but in general, there is no significant reduction in exports now,” he states.

Domestic chickens still account for more than 90% of poultry meat exports, while shipments of other types of products are developing. According to the results of 2022, turkey meat exports increased by 19% in volume and by 45% in money terms, and duck meat more than doubled. In total, about 26 thousand tons of turkey meat worth $70 million were exported last year, said Anatoly Velmatov, executive director of the National Association of Turkey Producers. Compared to 2021, 17% more products were sent abroad in physical terms, and 43% more in monetary terms. “A stable trend is higher growth in export earnings, which is associated with a change in the range of sales due to more expensive goods (sirloin and finished products) and a general increase in meat pricesturkeys,” he explains.

Starting from 2020, about 5% of the total pork production is exported annually. This is a very serious indicator, says Yury Kovalev, director general of the National Union of Pig Breeders. In the first half of 2022, shipments to foreign markets decreased by 25%, but in July-December, exports managed to increase, and the figure for the year amounted to 175 thousand tons, which is 9% less than in 2021, he says. At the same time, pork imports almost zeroed last year and, although it is open, the incoming volume does not have any effect on the market. At the same time, the import duty on this type of meat from 2020 is 25%, respectively, the market is protected, the expert draws attention.

Ice cream exports sank in MILK

According to the results of 2022, the export of dairy products in physical terms decreased by 17% - from 1 million tons to 830 thousand tons in milk equivalent (ME), however, in monetary terms, the decrease was only 1% - from $470 million to $465 million, informs the managing partner Streda Consulting Alexey Gruzdev. “And if we take out the factor of Ukraine (partly due to the cessation of supplies, partly due to the accession of new territories that are no longer considered exports), then export earnings have grown by 11%,” he says.

In terms of money, the volume of supplies increased in almost all categories (except for whey and ice cream), but physical volumes decreased significantly against the background of global agflation, with the exception of powdered milk (SOM and SPM), although shipments of this product are small in tons - 4.1 thousand tons Ice cream exports sank the most (by $27 million, or 52%), primarily due to Unilever's refusal to export supplies from Russia, Gruzdev points out. For other categories, the changes are not so significant for the overall picture and are associated primarily with Ukraine, as well as market changes in Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Svetlana Silenina also refers to the reduction in production against the background of a decrease in incomes of the population and the disruption of supply chains, as a result of which producers are faced with a shortage of ingredients, packaging, components for equipment, as well as with rising prices for raw materials. “Ice cream is not a driver for the export of agricultural products, but its supplies to foreign markets have been growing dynamically in previous years,” she notes.

In the past few years, ice creamit was just the locomotive of dairy exports from Russia, Gruzdev argues. Shipment volumes increased at a double-digit pace, and the geography was constantly expanding. “As a result, at the peak in 2021, our country exported 33.1 thousand tons of ice cream worth $85.4 million, and this product was purchased from us by 62 countries, and almost 50% of all exports went to non-CIS countries, we took 14th place in the world among the largest exporting countries,” the expert says. However, it was obvious that the successes are very “fragile” and are based on a number of rather unstable factors that, with any changes in the global market, can “collapse”, which happened in 2022, he admits.

Nevertheless, most companies managed not only to maintain their positions in international markets, but also to develop new areas, Gruzdev emphasizes. For example, Iceberry Group, despite a 30% reduction in supplies due to a sharp increase in the cost of logistics, expanded its presence in Africa from five to seven countries - shipments of products to Kenya and Cameroon began. Renna Group entered the Saudi Arabian market. The Dmitrovsky dairy plant conquers the UAE, and the first batch of Russian ice cream went to Egypt , the expert lists.

The unstable situation on the market during 2022, of course, had an impact on exports, the representative of the EkoNiva Group admits. In the first half of the year, due to the strengthening of the ruble, shipments of group dairy products decreased, but by the end of 2022 the situation had stabilized, he assures. The holding supplies UHT milk , cream and butter to other countries - more than 10 commodity items in total. The main export directions are China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan , Armenia, Belarus.

The list of buyers is growing

In December 2022, the head of Agroexport, Dmitry Krasnov, reported that shipments of agricultural products and food to Turkey increased by 23% following the results of 11 months, to China - by 38%, to Kazakhstan - by 30%, to Belarus - by 58%, to Saudi Arabia - by 49%, to Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan - by 21%, to Egypt - by 23%. In addition, in 2022, 15 countries were opened for 29 types of products. In total, Russia carried out agricultural exports to 160 foreign markets.

In the list of the largest buyers of Russian agricultural products, China regained its leadership last year. According to Andrei Dalnov, this happened due to an increase in purchases of fish and seafood, as well as oilseeds and products of their processing. In the long term, the supply of fish complex products may decline - China seeks to buy raw materials for further processing, and Russia, on the contrary, - to increase the export of value-added products, developing its own processing. “But this trend can be more than offset by the growth in shipments of grain, food and processing industry products,” the expert hopes. “China is one of the world leaders in the purchase of corn, wheat and barley, crops that Russia actively uses in crop rotation and exports.”

China remains the leading importer of Russian rapeseed oil, poultry meat, beef, soybeans, oats, flax seeds, and the country also came out on top among buyers of Russian honey and linseed oil, lists Silenina. Thus, according to preliminary data from the Federal Customs Service, during 2022, exports of rapeseed oil to China doubled in physical terms, and 2.4 times in monetary terms. In other words, almost 70% of all Russian exports of this product went to this country.

Deliveries of Russian fish products to China increased by 52% last year, to 937.3 thousand tons, against the background of the gradual lifting of restrictions that were introduced in 2020. In value terms, the volume of shipments increased to $2.75 billion, which is 48% higher than in 2021, the INFOLine expert adds.

139 thousand tons of poultry meat were delivered to China last year, which is 11% more than in 2021. In monetary terms, the growth rate reached 53%. Thus, China retained its leadership among the buyers of Russian poultry: about 40% of the total physical volume of Russian exports of this type of meat last year accounted for the republic (in 2021 - 42%). “The increase in shipments to China is primarily due to the fact that last year the country lifted excessive restrictions and product testing procedures under the covid-19 policy , while monitoring imported products for compliance with organoleptic indicators has been strengthened. These changes in the regulations for the work of the authorized bodies of the PRC were expected, and in anticipation of this, Russian manufacturers strengthened internalrequirements for products supplied there,” explains Sergey Lakhtyukhov. At the same time, during 2022, it was possible to overcome a significant part of the problems associated with logistical restrictions due to the refusal of the main operators to export turkey meat to China is also growing at the fastest pace, says Anatoly Velmatov. The UAE does not lag behind the republic - the increase in deliveries over the past year to these markets amounted to at least 20%. In total, in 2022, Russian turkey meat was sent to 46 countries of the world, while the export of finished turkey products more than tripled over the past year.

Trade with China is of strategic importance for the development of the Russian economy as a whole, and not just for the agro-industrial complex, emphasizes Daniil Kozlov. An important role here is played by the gradual transition in trade to settlements in national currencies, as well as attractive conditions that domestic producers can provide to the PRC.

Meanwhile, Russian exporters are actively looking for new markets in Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, continues Dalnov. Deliveries are being made to the markets of Oman, Venezuela, Jordan, Pakistan, Algeria, and Morocco, which were previously exotic for domestic producers. The most likely contender to enter the top 10 is India. The export of Russian agro-industrial products to this country is approaching $1 billion. animals), as well as, in the longer term, the deterioration of climatic conditions for agriculture in this country, the expert shares his opinion.

One of the main importers of domestic poultry meat among non-CIS countries, in addition to China, remains Saudi Arabia , notes Lakhtyukhov. This year, the UAE confidently joined it - exports increased by 3.2 times, as well as Azerbaijan, which, according to the results of 2022, entered the top 10 export countries with an increase of 1.6 times. “As for the EAEU member countries, the leader in this area is still Kazakhstan with a volume of almost 52 thousand tons,” the expert points out. “Although Belarus certainly became a breakthrough last year in terms of growth dynamics, deliveries to which increased by 2.6 times, while imports of poultry meat to Russia from this country increased by 6%.”

Export of dairy products is traditionally focused on the CIS countries, and 2022 was no exception - 88% of the volume was sent to neighboring markets, Gruzdev reports. But, despite all the political pressure, ROSSELKHOZNADZOR did not slow down the pace of opening access for domestic milk to foreign markets - in particular, such large and important areas as Nigeria and Thailand were mastered. Despite all the difficulties with logistics, the geography of the export of dry whey was expanded and the volume of exports of this product to the PRC, which came in second place in terms of purchases after Kazakhstan, was increased. And the supply of food-grade milk powder to China was started by the Meleuzovsky IWC, the expert adds.

“We do not observe abrupt and abrupt processes in expanding the country structure of grain exports, the situation remains stable, and we hope that this will be the case in the near future,” says a representative of Rif Trade House. “At the same time, it should be noted that new opportunities are now opening up for the Russian agro-industrial complex: buyers from Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan have increased their activity, Algeria has recently added to this list.” This factor is a good indicator that characterizes the level of confidence in domestic products, according to the company.

The Rif itself, after a long break in exports, sent to Vietnama trial shipload of wheat in the amount of 70.5 thousand tons. “We hope to expand our geography in Asia. For example, now with the active support of the Ministry of Agriculture, negotiations are underway on the export of agricultural products to China, Malaysia and Indonesia, - says a representative of the trading house. “In addition, there is a dialogue on the supply of grain for rubles to Egypt, and a number of such transactions have already been successfully concluded with Turkey.”

Will there be a new record?

This year, it will be difficult for the Russian agro-industrial complex to repeat the export record of 2022, Andrey Dalnov is skeptical. The World Bank predicts a decrease in indicative world prices for grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils - the main positions of Russian agricultural exports. “Although in fact, until the beginning of the 2023/24 season in Russia, the EU, North America, the forecasts for the global market situation are conditional due to the low predictability of weather conditions and their impact on the harvest in the new season,” he emphasizes. “A possible decline in these segments can be offset by an increase in shipments of animal protein — chicken, pork, beef, turkey, sausages and semi-finished products, milk powder, cheeses, fish and seafood.”

According to Silenina, both economic and political aspects will continue to influence foreign supplies of Russian agricultural products in 2023. INFOLine does not foresee a significant change in the structure of consumer countries, the opening of new sales markets to a greater extent depends on the activities of the Russian Foreign Ministry and veterinary services, she emphasizes. Nevertheless, according to the results of the current year, exports of agricultural products in actual prices will probably increase by 5-10%. In comparable prices, the volume of exports may decrease against the backdrop of the ongoing redistribution of commodity flows and foreign policy factors.

Russia will continue to increase the supply of products of deeper processing due to restrictive measures on the export of raw materials, which will positively affect the dynamics of exports, Silenina believes. In general, the product structure will not change significantly, as will the list of buyers. The launch of Russian production facilities in the territories of friendly countries (for example, Miratorg is considering the possibility of transferring part of the production to Vietnam) may reduce the export of certain goods, but this is a lengthy process that will not affect the results of 2023.

Russia has all the prospects for a further increase in shipments of poultry meat to foreign markets. “Purposeful work over several years to expand the geography of deliveries, supportexports from the state have created a potential that, in our opinion, has not yet been fully realized, - Lakhtyukhov is sure. — Without an escalation of sanctions pressure, export growth will continue in 2023. This will be facilitated by a general increase in the production of meat in general and poultry meat in particular, an improvement in the competitive position in international markets, building new logistics chains, an increase in the production volume of export-oriented companies, and a worsening of the epizootic situation in key exporting countries.”

The turkey breeders also expect the positive dynamics in exports to continue. According to Anatoly Velmatov, the main factors are the growth in global consumption of turkey meat as a relatively inexpensive meat with a high protein content, a decrease in exports from the United Statesand Western European countries due to the worsening epizootic situation, the increased competitiveness of Russian turkey meat on the world market, as well as the current depreciation of the ruble against other currencies.

Despite the multiple increase in logistics costs and the sanctions of Western countries in force against Russia, the export of pig products in the first quarter of 2023 already has a positive trend in all areas, Yuri Kovalev notes. The main reason is the improvement in the global pork market and the weakening of the national currency. At the same time, prices for this type of meat in the world have increased due to an increase in China's need for imported pork at the end of last year and a reduction in production in the EU countries due to economic, veterinary and environmental problems. According to the NSS, in the three months of 2023, 135.5 thousand tons of pork were already sent abroad, which is 4% more than in the same period in 2022.

This year, Russia has every opportunity to increase the volume of shipments of oil and fat products, taking into account the record oilseed harvest, high stocks of oilseeds and the current state export regulation measures for domestic raw materials, predicts Kirill Lozovoy. “It is important to note that the only point of growth in the industry's production is exports, since domestic consumption in our country has long been at about the same level,” he draws attention. “The sector has the resource and technical potential to increase the output of finished products, especially against the backdrop of the planned emergence of new oilseed processing capacities in our country in 2023 and 2024.” Russian processors themselves also plan to actively move into new foreign markets.

The development of exports of dairy products this year will depend primarily on the exchange rate of the ruble, Aleksey Gruzdev is sure. “The sanctions stress in the industry has been overcome, supply chains have adapted, most of the target countries are open for deliveries – in a favorable environment, we can expect a growth of 5-7% in volumes,” he estimates. “With a high degree of probability, we will increase shipments of products to the CIS countries in most categories, but we also have good prospects in the far abroad.” At the same time, it is unlikely that it will be possible to return the former volumes of ice cream, however, the geography of its supplies will expand, and the volumes will gradually grow. Russia also has good potential in the commodities market: shipments of dry whey to China will increase, the presence of Russian companies in the regions of Southeast Asia and MENA will expand, and, possibly, deliveries to African countries will begin,

What about the rest of the categories?

In other areas of exports, multidirectional dynamics were noted. Thus, the export of soft drinks and water showed an increase of 15%, to $278 million, Roman Medvedev, head of the export committee of the Union of Juice, Water and Drink Producers (Soyuznapitka), told Agroexport . According to him, the largest buyers of Russian drinks last year were Kazakhstan (55.4%), Uzbekistan (15%), Belarus (6.6%) and Kyrgyzstan (7.8%). The total share of exports to neighboring countries amounted to 96.6%. Among non-CIS countries, Mongolia (by 280%, to $2.7 million), Turkey (by 219%, to $0.8 million) and SOUTH KOREA (258%, to $0.26 million) increased imports of domestic beverages the most. in the overview of the center.

But the volume of deliveries of confectionery products from Russia has decreased. According to ASKOND, in physical terms, exports decreased by 23.1% (to 0.6 million), in monetary terms - by 5.8% (to $1.63 billion). In previous years, this category of goods also showed growth, comments Svetlana Silenina from INFOLine. In her opinion, both economic and political factors influenced the decline in exports, including the refusal to ship Russian products to foreign markets by transnational companies such as Mars and Nestle.

EkoNiva Group has already opened new markets for itself this year. “In the first quarter, we began to supply products to Uzbekistan, dairy products under our own brand of the same name are already presented in more than 60 outlets in Tashkent,” a company representative clarifies. — We are actively exploring the possibilities of exporting to the countries of Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and if we talk about the types of products sent abroad, we expect to add the entire line of butter to the assortment: 72.5% and 82.5% fat in packages of 180 g and 350 g.

The situation on the world market remains very complex and uncertain, so it is too early to make any forecasts regarding the export of agricultural products, Daniil Kozlov cautiously speaks. Much will depend on the depth of a possible recession and banking crisis in Western countries, as well as on the continued development of trade in national currencies, he believes.

According to Nikolai Lantsev, Director of Practice for Providing Services to Government Agencies and the Public Sector of Technologies of Trust, as members of the Eurasian Union, Kazakhstan and Belarus will maintain their positions as the main buyers of Russian food. Turkey, as one of the largest historical importers of Russian grain products, also has the potential to increase supplies. China, among other countries, has the greatest potential, in particular, the driver of the growth in the export of sunflower oil to this country is the switch in the preferences of Chinese consumers to it from soybean.

The demand for domestic agricultural products will also increase from the markets of the Persian Gulf, the expert expects. In particular, for finished products - due to population growth and high income levels in most countries. Given the development of relations with the countries of the Middle East, Africa and Asia (an increase in the number of business missions to a number of friendly countries, the establishment of business contacts with state authorities), the export of food and agricultural raw materials to these regions will also increase. But the Latin American markets have the least potential due to logistical difficulties (increase in freight costs, etc.), Lantsev believes.