Low supply and strong demand: Meat prices are rising in Argentina

Beef prices have risen again, reflected on supermarket shelves and in butcher shops. Over the past two weeks, retail prices have risen by 8-12%, with some popular cuts seeing increases exceeding 15% compared to October. However, sales remain strong: consumers continue to buy, accepting the new prices and perpetuating a trend that repeats every year at the end of the year, when demand soars and cattle supply declines.

At the Cañuelas cattle market, live cattle prices are showing a stability few can remember. The price of draft bulls has reached $4,200 per kilogram live weight, while 480-kilogram heifers are at $3,850. This is happening amid a shrinking supply of animals and increased competition between MEAT processing plants, slaughterhouses, and exporters. Sergio Pedase, vice president of the Argentine Chamber of Abattoirs (CAMyA), explained to Ámbito: "It's a question of supply and demand, but demand is really high, especially internationally. Exporters want to sell as much as possible, and this is putting pressure on the prices of bulls and heifers."

This is the result of an unfavorable climate cycle that lasted for three seasons. Miguel Sciaritti, HEAD of the Argentine Chamber of Meat and Meat Industry and Commerce (CICCRA), recalled in an interview with this publication that "the 2023 drought was the worst I can remember, leading to the loss of 3% of our cattle ranchers, in addition to almost 200,000 calves." These losses were compounded by the floods of 2024 and 2025, which affected more than five million hectares and complicated calving in cattle ranching areas. In fact, "today there are still heifers calving in water, which further reduces supplies just when it is needed most."

As a result, the market is shrinking and prices are rising. Sciaritti explained that, in addition to all this, the fattening business has become attractive again because "buyingA 360-kg steer can be more profitable than a lighter calf because you pay less and slaughter it within 90 days. With steer prices ranging from $4,000 to $4,200 per kilogram live weight, this equation works. Supply is limited, the end of the year is approaching, and holidays always push prices up. It's the perfect combination for beef prices to rise.

Analyst Victor Tonelli shares the same view that the price increase in recent weeks "is not due to inflation, but to a real supply shortage." According to his data, the price of a large steer was between $4,150 and $4,200 per kilogram live weight, equivalent to more than $7,300 per kilogram carcass weight. "If you add in the markup of meat processing plants and slaughterhouses, a rise in prices at the counter is inevitable," he stated. In an interview with Ámbito, Tonelli also noted that the feed market is favorable for cattle conservation, and the recent decline in interest rates has allowed for the resumption of production financing : "Ranchers now have a tool they didn't have before, and this is changing business decisions. What we expected later has already happened: the price of cattle has increased by 12-13% in just two weeks."

According to experts, seasonality, EXPORT pressure, and domestic shortages create a highly challenging combination. On the one hand, there's the classic supply-demand dynamic, reinforced by international demand, but on the other, it's impossible to ignore the chaotic structural problems arising from declining livestock numbers due to drought and floods. Nevertheless, despite these challenges, production finds the resources and funding to maintain stable prices.

Despite the rise, domestic demand remains strong. "It's amazing," explained Schiaritti, "that despite the price increases, sales haven't fallen. People continue to buy. I don't know if this is due to wage adjustments or simply price adjustments, but demand remains stable." This consumer behavior, accepting price increases without reducing consumption, reinforces the trend and maintains the new price level.

Meanwhile, the meat processing industry faces a more challenging situation. Due to rising costs and high tariffs, the industry is operating with low profitability, and payment delays are beginning to occur. According to information obtained by Ámbito after surveying industry experts, there is concern that "some plants are laying off staff because they can no longer sustain their operations." Exporters, meanwhile, face an external environment characterized by stagnant prices and rising logistics costs, which is reducing profitability even in a context of high demand. Costs are high, making profitability difficult.

Despite these restrictions, the upward trend in the domestic market appears to be firmly established. Industry operators predict that if supply does not improve and domestic demand remains strong, consumer prices for beef may continue to rise in the final two months of the year, reflecting the rise in live cattle prices, which, according to MAG, have already risen by 12-13%. However, by the end of the year, retail prices could rise by 15-20%, consistent with typical price dynamics in the livestock and retail markets.