Pork exports from the EU grew by 1%

The shocks caused by the covid-19 crisis , African swine fever in Germany and Brexit in international markets have affected the development of pork exports to the EU, but a small increase in volumes (1%) is still expected. Overall, EU pork exports are expected to continue growing in 2021, albeit at a slower pace than in the past two years (+5%). EU pork imports could increase by 1% in 2021.

New ASF outbreaks in CHINA slow herd recovery. Despite the fall in Chinese prices compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, the Chinese market is still profitable for EU exporters. China should remain the top EU pork EXPORT destination in 2021. When Germany, one of the largest pork exporters in the EU, lost access to most Asian markets due to the ASF outbreak, other European exporters were able to fill the gap by increasing their exports.

They will likely continue to do so next year as production is expected to rise in Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, France and even Poland.

EU pork production growth is expected to pick up slightly in 2021 with an annual growth of 1.7%. According to the short-term forecast published by the European Commission, a steady upward trend in animal weight continues (averaging +1 kg per year since 2016), which supports the pace of production growth.

At the same time, as trade data show, the impact of Brexit is being felt mainly in the UK. The impact of the UK exit from the EU is less on EU pork exports to the UK (-17% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period last year) than on imports from the UK (-52%).