Mortgage bubbles and the departure from the dollar. The main thing from the RBC conference

What to expect from housing prices, why there are “no more” cross-border payments in dollars, and how sanctions divided banks into two groups. Key quotes from the conference “Banks. Transformation. Economy. 2.0"

About housing prices

Head of the Analytical Center, Managing Director of Dom.RF Mikhail Goldberg

“After three years of fairly serious growth in housing prices, we see that in the first quarter they moved to stagnation. Housing prices are not growing now, especially in the business class, and I think that, most likely, in nominal terms, prices will remain at about the same level - maybe they will add 2-3%. But in real terms, this year we will see a slight decrease in prices.”

Vice President of the Association of Banks of Russia Alexey Voylukov

“There has already been a [statement] about the outpacing space growth in the last two years, when real estate prices skyrocketed by 50% due to ultra-concessional mortgages . And only the events of the beginning of last year, plus the fact that preferential mortgages, low rates cannot cope and do not allow that monthly [payment to be kept at the same level], despite low interest rates, [led to the fact that] a gradual adjustment began, a decrease. This year, some stagnation has been observed so far, but, according to my expert estimates, most likely, the price of a meter should fall, because it is really overpriced. That growth was several times thatinflation that we have. Well, plus, in fact, if you look, now all the benchmarks, indicators that we have are all the prices that are in advertising. When you come to make a deal, there is always a discount, which reaches 30-35% for some developers. It's just that no one wants to name the real price, so as not to collapse, respectively, the entire market. But gradually, according to my forecasts, there should be a downward adjustment, and it most likely will be, if there are no new super-privileged programs.”

About the mortgage bubble

Vice President for Public Relations and Corporate Relations of PIK Group Dmitry Timofeev

“If you and I read the analytics about the mortgage bubble, I don’t remember anyone formulating clear indicators that are supposedly already in the red zone. I myself hear the word “bubble” very often, including at various meetings, but there are no clear criteria for evaluating what it is. We all refer to some Western practice and so on - [but] if we take the level of debt load of the population as one of the criteria, then we definitely do not have a mortgage bubble.

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Alexey Voylukov

“Debt load is really low in general. But if you look at what the Central Bank is worried about - for a certain segment of citizens who have little income and who most of all try to get into mortgages in all sorts of ways with the help of schemes - the same down payment that they do not make themselves, but take with the help of credit resources, that bubble is really growing. And the fact that the Central Bank is trying to restrain it all, realizing what risks this can lead to - for now, as I see it, the regulator is not succeeding, because the market finds schemes to bypass its next decisions. And it is in this part of citizens with low income that this bubble is brewing. If it bursts, if they suddenly lose their jobs, it will lead to a collapse. But we are not talking about the collapse that was in the US.”

Commercial Director of Samolet Group Kirill Khrapov

“There is no classic bubble, in our opinion. There are concerns about two things. The first is declining demand, the second is the growing maturity of the mortgage, and there are fears that people will not be able to repay it if something happens. Both of these concerns have good solutions. First, how to increase demand in conditions when, it would seem, everyone has already taken out a mortgage, help people save up for a down payment. Do we have targeted savings accounts in the country from the state, from banks for consumers? No, they do not exist, as in England or Germany.

The second is a strongly growing average maturity, including at a rate of 0.1%. There are fears that these people will not return to the market until it is paid off. There is also a solution - give the opportunity to easily give up an apartment with this mortgage loan to a new borrower without changing the loan at a new rate. Let him buy an apartment with the same conditions for the rate and monthly payment. Make one offer to him - let him increase this down payment and spend it on the early repayment of this mortgage by term, and not by monthly payment.

On the reorientation of banks to less wealthy customers

Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of Uralsib Bank Stanislav Tyves

“We see that the banks themselves are starting to work in segments in which they did not want to before. This is a segment of microfinance organizations, where the risks are quite high. We see that banks are starting to issue cash loans for up to 30 thousand rubles, but what rates should [should] be on these loans to recoup operating expenses? <...> This is a trend that the real incomes of the population are not growing, they are declining, the population is not getting richer, it is borrowing money, and banks are beginning [to enter low-income] consumer segments.”

And about. Retail Business Director of Rosbank Maxim Lukyanovich

“We are optimistic that there may be a certain increase (the issuance of loans. -), but I agree that it will be modest - about 10-15%. From the point of view of the purchasing power of the population... even though we have the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development that real incomes of the population will grow this year, we still need to see how much they will grow and where these incomes will go - into savings or into consumption. There are plenty of reasons to believe that it will be savings.”

About cryptocurrency

Deputy Minister of Finance Alexey Moiseev

“Crypto is generally evil. I think that people who invest their savings there take a very big risk. <...> This is our position, which is common with the Central Bank.”

There may be individual situations in which cryptocurrency can be used, Moiseev added: “There are a number of advantages. This is the absence of correspondent accounts, this is the ability to conduct transactions with lightning speed with little or no compliance in a number of countries, and so on and so forth. And this can and should be used where possible and possible.

On the impact of sanctions on business

Deputy Chairman of Absolut Bank Anton Pavlov

“Last year drew a line between banks – they are now sanctioned and non-sanctioned. And many understand that non-sanctioned banks have a number of advantages: despite the terrible customer experience, many have become UnionPay cardholders in banks whose names they never knew. Now this situation will remain with us for a long time. Banks not under sanctions have a number of advantages, they can be less bothered by customer experience, because there will always be a queue for them. The practice is vicious, but it exists.”

On the departure from the dollar in foreign trade

Alexey Moiseev

“I think it’s no secret to anyone that the ruble-dollar settlements are practically cross-border… I would say that they don’t exist. [There are] individual episodes that occasionally occur - from the point of view of the system, they do not exist. The “ruble-euro” is still a little bit left, but it is also fading away little by little. This is due to a number of reasons - both with the blocking of accounts, and with compliance, which takes weeks, and with the reluctance to use this currency, because it may not reach the addressee, and so on. We have finally come to a situation where the soft currency turnover on the Moscow Exchange has reached a situation that corresponds to the level of trade relations. Not all of them, but many of them."

On currency limits in transactions of foreigners

Alexey Moiseev

“The limit will be the same - the point is that there is no pressure on the foreign exchange market. This means that, relatively speaking, the commission allowed the sale of a business for such and such an amount, but you can buy currency within a certain period so as not to violate the limit. There will be no fine-tuning, there will simply be a general restriction, because otherwise we will manipulate the exchange rate, and we would not want this.”

About the behavior of customers with loans

Member of the Board, Director of Retail Distribution of Post Bank Anton Anishchenko

“If you look at the growth of portfolios since the beginning of the year, then the loan portfolio has grown by about 1.5% and the liabilities portfolio by 1.5%. Usually credit grows faster. Now the average repayment period [of loans] has increased. <...> Clients are not so actively closing their loan obligations ahead of schedule, they evenly pay off the loan that they have. Moreover, for many loans, the conditions, if they were taken before 2022, are more favorable. And what is very important - customers have loans and at the same time increase their savings. Not like before: if there is a loan, the client repays it ahead of schedule, and then saves up. Now the story is more balanced."