Experts assessed the long-term effect of sanctions on the Russian economy Sanctions

will deduct 1-1.5% annually from Russia's GDP growth rates in the long term - until 2030, according to experts interviewed by the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Incomes of the population will not keep up with the growth of the economy,

Долгосрочный эффект санкций будет выражен в торможении темпов роста российского ВВП на 1–1,5% в год, свидетельствуют результаты консенсус-прогноза о перспективах развития экономики до 2030 года, проведенного Институтом «Центр развития» НИУ ВШЭ среди 17 макроэкономистов из государственных и частных организаций. Оценки экспертов озвучила директор института Наталья Акиндинова на первом из серии семинаров на тему «Долгосрочное социально-экономическое развитие в условиях изоляции, санкций и внешних шоков», прошедшем в НИУ ВШЭ в конце мая. РБК следил за дискуссией.

Экономисты ожидают, что динамика доходов населения будет хуже, чем динамика ВВП, поскольку общие издержки экономики будут расти, вытесняя издержки на труд. Перспективы открытия экономики для экспорта и импорта эксперты оценивают по-разному, но усредненная оценка сводится к тому, что доля экспорта снизится на 5–7 процентных пунктов к 2030 году по сравнению с нынешней долей в ВВП. В последние годы доля экспорта товаров и услуг в ВВП России колебалась от 25 до 30%, следует из данных Всемирного банка.

According to the latest Central Bank survey conducted among economists in June, they expect the economy to contract by 7.5% this year, zero growth next year, and GDP growth by 1.8% in 2024 and 2025. They estimated the expected average GDP growth rate in 2026-2030 at 1.5% per year. Even in the February forecast, before the imposition of sanctions, they expected the economy to grow by 2.4% in 2022, and by 2.1 and 2% in the next two years. Long-term GDP growth was also estimated at 2%.

Among the main risks for the long term, economists called the loss of macroeconomic and social stability, technological backwardness, as well as increased demographic problems. At the same time, participants in the consensus forecast also identified a number of opportunities that the sanctions crisis brings, such as a reorientation to other sources of imports and EXPORT destinations, as well as import substitution, primarily of technologically simpler goods. “Experts are rather skeptical about the possibilities of import substitution in particular and the development of high-tech industries in RUSSIA in general, which is also a challenge for economic policy,” Akindinova said.

Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences called the risks for the labor market due to sanctions Economics

Lack of research on sanctions

Формирование долгосрочной политики в условиях санкций осложняет недостаток исследований на тему экономической изоляции, считают участники семинара. Первые работы, рассматривающие экономическую теорию санкций, появились лишь в конце 1990-х — начале 2000-х годов, подчеркнул научный руководитель Экспертного института ВШЭ Револьд Энтов. Хотя на практике санкции начали применяться намного раньше. Первые санкции против Ирана были введены в 1950-е годы, в 1960-е годы — против Кубы, на протяжении XX века было несколько пакетов санкций против СССР.

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С более активным применением инструмента экономической изоляции эффект санкций — в том числе в разрезе конкретных стран — начал изучаться. Однако опыт, накопленный другими странами мира, нельзя заимствовать для анализа ситуации в России, не делая серьезные поправки на внешнеэкономический контекст, размер, структуру и уровень развития экономик, считает руководитель направления анализа и прогнозирования развития отраслей реального сектора ЦМАКП Владимир Сальников.

Economists have named the similarities and differences between the covid and sanctions crises Economics

Experience and mistakes of other countries

Studies of the experience of other countries that have experienced sanctions pressure allow us to predict some of the consequences of economic isolation. Ilya Voskoboinikov, DIRECTOR of the Center for Productivity Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, identified the following patterns:

the sanctions crisis hurts the sub-sanctioned economy, regardless of whether political goals are achieved; Iran's experience has shown that import substitution, as a natural reaction of a sub-sanctioned economy, leads to a decrease in production productivity, as the competitiveness of enterprises in the market worsens, costs rise, and sales decrease. As a result, the risks of unemployment increase. This situation is typical for high-tech industries; Sanctions exacerbate inequality and poverty, dealing a heavy blow to the vulnerable, while the wealth of the wealthy may even increase. Isolating a country through sanctions reduces its “transparency”, and human rights violations can intensify within this zone.

In many ways, modern approaches to the formation of economic policy in Russia reflect the mobilization experience of the USSR, Voskoboynikov notes. But the main damage to the growth of the Soviet economy under sanctions was caused not so much by the lack of access to advanced technologies or restrictions in foreign trade, but by an internal inability to allocate resources efficiently, he said.

The same problem, according to him, was pointed out by Iranian entrepreneurs in a survey about the main obstacles to working under sanctions. They noted that it is not the sanctions themselves that prevent them from working, but the imperfection of the rules in the Iranian economy.

According to the expert, at the present stage, the state should increase the efficiency of resource allocation by providing a competitive environment, market pricing and support for entrepreneurial initiatives.

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