USDA predicts food prices to rise for 2023, but at a slower pace

This updated forecast shows a narrowing of the price range for all food items , with estimates ranging from 4.9% to 7.5% for all food products, from 4.5% to 8.1% for grocery items, and from 7% to 8. 4% for food outside the home.

Notably, while the latest inflation data for April showed food prices rose 0.2%, higher than in March, the USDA still lowered its forecast for overall food prices to rise in 2023.

For selected food categories, pork prices are expected to decline by 2.5% in 2023, down from the 2.2% decline forecast in April. On the other hand, beef prices are forecast to rise by 0.7%, beating April's forecast for a 0.5% fall.

The USDA forecasts a 16.6% increase in egg prices in 2023, compared to a 17.8% increase forecast in April. The “other products” category, which includes soups, spices, seasonings, sauces, baby food and other products, is expected to increase in price by 8.8% in 2023.

While these projections are lower than previous projections, they still represent significant food price inflation. They are also well above the 20-year average growth of 2.8% for all food items, 3.1% for restaurant prices and 2.5% for grocery store prices. The expected growth is in line with the trend established in 2022, with all food prices up 9.9%, restaurant prices up 7.7% and groceries up 11.4% compared to 2021.