US: Cattle Market Review Week 47, November 25, 2024

On Friday afternoon, the Cattle on Feed report showed October feeder placements totalled 2.286 million HEAD, up 5.35% on a year ago and above the average trade estimate of 3.8%. October marketing sales were up 4.65% to 1.845 million head and below the average trade estimate of +5.2%. On November 1, feeder cattle placements reached a record for the month of 11.986 million head, up 0.25% on a year ago, compared to expectations for a 0.1% fall.

Traders appear to be increasingly encouraged by higher cattle prices and expectations that the numbers will decline as we enter 2025. The feed index is rising and with higher feeder cattle prices this week, the index could continue to rise.

Meatpackers ramped up slaughter last week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday this week, which will see a lost day of slaughter. The late holidays reduce the seasonality for the Christmas and New Years holidays. The cash market will also show prices higher than last week, which is keeping the packers in a tight spot as they have a lot of orders to fill. If we get some winter weather that reduces carcass weights, they could be in even more trouble.  

Year-to-date beef exports totaled 698,723 tonnes, down 2.36% year-on-year. Total commitments, including unshipped sales, rose 0.9% to 829,337 tonnes.

The USDA estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter this week on Saturday at 631,000 head. That's 25,000 more than the previous week and well above the same week last year, since Thanksgiving is a week later this year.

The beef production forecast is raised from last month for both 2024 and 2025. The fourth-quarter 2024 production forecast is slightly higher than last month, raising the full-year forecast to 27.025 billion pounds. This is based on a slower expected pace of fed cattle sales, which is more than offset by higher expected cow slaughter and heavier carcass weights for the remainder of the year. The 2025 production forecast is raised to 26.280 billion pounds based on higher expected fed cattle sales and heavier carcass weights from last month. Quarterly cattle price forecasts for 2025 have been raised each quarter on the faster pace of sales expected next year. Based on September trade data, U.S. beef imports are expected to increase in late 2024 and the second half of 2025. The U.S. beef EXPORT forecast for next year has been increased based on an expected increase in beef production in 2025.

WEEKLY COST OF CUT OUT CAT.CHOICE

CATTLE SALES

Sale of cattle, heads

Average weight

Week 46

Week 47

Growth per week,%

Week 46

Week 47

Growth per week,%

Bulls (live weight)

20 843

10 773

-48.3%

1,547

1,546

-0.1%

Heifers (live weight)

8 589

4 289

-50.1%

1 348

1 322

-1.9%

Bulls (slaughter weight)

7 617

4 741

-37.8%

982

975

-0.7%

Heifers (slaughter weight)

1,080

1,447

34.0%

865

859

-0.7%

WEEKLY WEIGHTED AVERAGE BULL PRICE

BEEF PRODUCTION                                                                     

Indicator

Week 47

Previous week

A year ago

Growth per week,%

Growth per year, %

Volume of cattle slaughter

631,000

606,000

534,000

4.1%

18.2%

Live weight

1,426

1,425

1 397

0.1%

2.1%

Slaughter weight

869

869

847

0.0%

2.6%

Beef Production (million pounds)

547.3

525.6

451.6

4.1%

21.2%

CME: Live Cattle Futures

Week 46

Week 47

Growth per week,%

December

182.95

186.78

2.1%

February

185.25

188.20

1.6%

April

187.40

189.95

1.4%

CME: Feeder Cattle Futures

January

247.23

254.30

2.9%

March

245.65

253.13

3.0%

April

253.13

254.35

0.5%

You can learn more about the state of the cattle market in the usa (cattle prices, cost of beef by category, production dynamics) in the weekly reviews of the MEAT market in RUSSIA and in the world from Meatinfo.ru. Weekly reviews are available as part of a subscription.