Beef consumption in Japan will remain flat in 2024

On May 8 , the Japanese government reclassified COVID-19 to Class 5 under the Law on Prevention of Infectious Diseases and Medical Care for Patients with Infectious Diseases. For diseases classified as Class 5, the government does not require people to take any restrictive protective or control measures in their daily lives.

After nearly three years of restricted movement and limited dining options, dining out and travel are once again widespread across Japan. Sales in the hotel, restaurant and institutional sectors, which account for about 60% of total beef consumption, now exceed pre-COVID-19 levels in most restaurants.

Chain burger restaurants classified as Western-style fast food restaurants have had stable sales during the COVID-19 pandemic. Beef Bowl chain restaurants, which are Japanese-style fast-food restaurants, had fewer customers during the COVID-19 pandemic as many office workers worked from home. They have largely recovered their customer base this year. And Yakiniku restaurants that serve grilled meats are now popular among families.

The increase in the number of foreign visitors has also led to increased demand in the hotel and restaurant sector. The reclassification of COVID-19 to Grade 5 on May 8 removed all social restrictions that were used to control the spread of the disease. Previously, all border controls related to COVID-19 were lifted on April 29. The number of foreign visitors to Japan has increased sharply, reaching 34% of total visitors in 2019 in the first six months of 2023.

However, inflation forces households and consumers to be more price conscious when choosing goods and services. Retail demand for beef is relatively price elastic, and consumers have shifted some demand to less expensive products such as pork or chicken .

Compared to 2019, consumers bought 3% less beef in 2022 but paid 8% more for it, according to a household survey published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIAK). And in the first five months of 2023, consumers bought 9% less beef but paid 3% more for it than in 2019.

Tourism is expected to continue to drive beef consumption in the hotel and restaurant sectors in the second half of 2023-24, but inflation will slow growth, so total beef consumption in 2024 will remain unchanged compared to the same period last year.