A million fewer: Argentina will end 2025 with a third consecutive year of decline in cattle numbers.

"The winter (June to August) saw a challenging livestock situation, characterized by scattered livestock price fluctuations and an economic environment characterized by exchange rate adjustments, rising financial costs, and the presence of large grazing areas with excess water," the report notes.

According to private estimates and official data, the country's cattle population could decline by 700,000 to 1 million heads by the end of 2025, due to a combination of high rates of female slaughter, a shortage of pasture in some areas and excessive rainfall in others, as well as a lack of credit for breeding livestock.

The same report also noted that feedlot pens had begun emptying prematurely due to a loss of profitability. "While gross margins are still positive, the net profit after fixed costs is already negative, and pens have (somewhat prematurely) entered the emptying phase," it stated.

Meanwhile, he added: "Margins decline during the winter, reflecting the deterioration of the purchase-to-sale ratio as the year progresses. The situation with rented fields became even more critical in the last quarter, which exacerbated their negative results."

In an interview with LA NACION, livestock consultant Victor Tonelli explained: “It’s clear that by the end of the year we will have fewer livestock, somewhere around a million or so heads of different categories.”

According to the specialist, the decline is due to a combination of factors. "We've been faced with drought, pasture shortages, and excessive rainfall in key regions, and this is having an impact at the end of the year. We haven't entered the cycle of maintaining and rebuilding our herds. Until this happens, we'll have fewer herds by the end of the year, which will mean three consecutive years of losses," he said. According to his analysis, a lack of funding "is currently the main obstacle to maintaining breeding females and rebuilding the herd."

Meanwhile, Nestor Rule, an agricultural producer and former Minister of Added Value under Mauricio Macri, predicts a decline in the number of breeding females. He estimates that by 2025,  the cattle population   will decline by 700,988 head—from 22,080,149 to 21,379,161.

"This year, all indications are that we're facing another decline in livestock numbers. This is a direct consequence of the cycle of intensive slaughter without replacement, which will continue as long as profitability remains low," said Rule.

The diagnosis by both specialists confirms a trend that has already begun to show signs of decline. According to a Ministry of Agriculture report published last April, Argentina lost nearly 1.2 million HEAD of cattle in 2024 , leaving 51.6 million, a 2.2% decrease from the previous year, and a total loss of 2.6 million head over two years. This data confirms fears that 2025 could end with another significant reduction in the national herd, by approximately one million head.

The report also emphasizes that excessive rainfall and increased financial costs have exacerbated the decline in the livestock sector. "Significant areas of the provinces of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Córdoba experienced excessive rainfall, leading to the declaration of a state of emergency. These unfavorable conditions impacted production, adding another layer of uncertainty for producers," the report explains. Wintering margins, despite high productivity, amounted to 382,937 pesos per hectare, 24% lower than the same period last year.

However, the official report identified several factors softening the outlook. It emphasized that despite cost pressures, gross margins from feedlot operations remain positive, allowing for some feedlot activity to be maintained.   Prices for some cattle categories, particularly steers and heifers for consumption, have increased, while   MEAT exports have maintained stable volumes, helping to balance demand. The report also notes that with stabilization of financial conditions and improving weather, a gradual recovery in profitability could begin in the coming quarters, with increased access to credit and potential restoration of pastures.

Meanwhile, Tonelli predicts that if the macroeconomic situation stabilizes and funding normalizes, a new cycle of livestock conservation could begin. "I foresee a sharp decline in supply in 2026–2027 as a result of this process, but until this finally happens, we will have fewer livestock by the end of the year," he calculated.