The IEA sees a risk of a decline in oil production in Russia due to sanctions.

There is a "significant downside risk" to Russia's oil production forecast due to US sanctions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report.BLOOMBERG .

The agency's experts believe that the latest US sanctions "could have a far-reaching impact on global oil markets." They noted that "crude oil supplies from Russia have remained virtually unchanged at this time," but added that the disruption of global supply chains "creates risks that extend far beyond Russia," Bloomberg quotes from the report.

Nevertheless, for now, the IEA maintains its forecast for Russian oil production at an average of 9.3 million barrels per day in the current quarter and next year. The agency stated that it will maintain this forecast "until further details on enforcement and possible workarounds become available."

As the report states, Russia "is demonstrating its ability to quickly create new oil producing companies and transport more cargo using its sanctioned fleet."

In total, according to the IEA, Russia exported 7.4 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per day, which is slightly lower than September's figures. Experts estimate that lower prices for Russian oilMoscow's oil revenues from its supplies fell to a five-month low of $13.1 billion.

The IEA estimates that the latest US sanctions against the Russian energy sector "appear to be more stringent" than previous rounds, as evidenced by the reduction in Russian oil supplies to India.

Following new US sanctions, according to dataREUTERS reported that China's largest state-owned companies have suspended purchases of Russian oil by sea. Bloomberg reported that small private Chinese companies ("teapots") are also refusing fuel supplies from Russia due to the threat of sanctions.

Furthermore, Indian state-owned refineries cancelled some oil deliveries from Russia. On October 31, Reuters reported that Indian Oil Corp. (IOC), India's largest refinery, purchased several cargoes of Russian ESPO crude from companies not subject to sanctions, with delivery scheduled for December. The agency also reported that Turkey , one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, had increased its purchases of fuel from other suppliers.

Moscow considers the sanctions illegal. President Vladimir Putin dismissed the restrictions as an attempt by the United States to exert pressure. He noted that there was nothing new in these restrictions, although they would have certain consequences. "Our energy sector is feeling quite confident," the HEAD of state assured.

After eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said this move would allow Russia to produce 42,000 barrels per day more. Amid OPEC+ plans to increase production by the same 137,000 barrels per day, Novak stated in mid-October that Russia has the potential to do so.

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