African swine fever outbreak in the US will cost $79.5 billion

In a study by Dermot Hayes, an economist at Iowa State University, the analysis shows that the ASF outbreak will cost the pig and MEAT industry $79.5 billion and directly affect 60,000 industrial workers. Pork prices will fall by 50-60% and remain low for three years before recovering. 

“As you can imagine, the results are terrible,” says Hayes. “We EXPORT almost 30% of our pork. This would allow us to immediately enter the domestic market and fill it with an inexpensive product. Some meats were simply canned and not used because otherwise they would have gone to CHINA.”

He points out that the losses of the industry in the first couple of years will be associated with low prices, prices for live pigs may even fall by more than 50%.

For the first couple of years, the result of ASF would have been financial disaster. He adds that over the next eight to 10 years, if the US cannot bring ASF under control, the industry will need to be downsized.

Since 2018, when China reported ASF in its swine herd, the National Pig Council and producers across the country have stepped up ongoing efforts to prepare, respond, and recover from ASF

Joel Nerem, chief veterinarian at Pipestone, says there is no doubt that ASF or any other animal disease will have an impact on the US pig industry.

“Producers need to be prepared to respond,” Nerem says. “We need to be prepared to react and respond quickly because it is in our national interest, as well as in the personal interest of each producer, to be able to respond quickly to a foreign animal disease because of its consequences.”

Patrick Webb, Assistant Chief Veterinary Officer for the National Pig Council, encourages producers to use AgView, a free database and dashboard that allows producers to securely share pig location and movement data with state animal HEALTH officials so they can quickly identify where there is disease and where there is not.