What caused the aggravation of the situation around Ukraine. US Expert Opinions

On Friday, February 11, US officials reiterated the possibility of Russian troops invading Ukraine. According to Politico, US President Joe Biden told allies that it could begin on February 16. The same date was given by the sources of the German magazine Der Spiegel, the sources of the BLOOMBERG agency named the day before - February 15 (on this day, the new Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, should visit Moscow). National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan suggested that the "invasion" could begin before the end of the Beijing Olympics, which will end on February 20. As early as February 2, US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said she would no longer call an invasion of Ukraine imminent.

Against the backdrop of statements from more than a dozen countries recommended that their citizens leave Ukraine. RIA Novosti reported that Russian diplomats began to leave the country. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned on Thursday that such a decision could be made. On Saturday, the Russian Foreign Ministry explained the decision by the fear of provocations.

“All these messages came against the backdrop of the approaching end of the second stage of negotiations - on February 15, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will arrive in Moscow from Kyiv and bring collectively developed proposals from Ukraine and the West, more precisely, the West on Ukraine, agreed with Kyiv. It is already clear from the Kremlin’s reaction to Macron’s proposals and the West’s collective response, rejected by the Russian Foreign Ministry, that Moscow will not like these Scholz messages, which means that a radically tough reaction is possible starting from February 16, ”says Ivan Preobrazhensky, an expert on Central and Eastern Europe . In addition, just these days, all Russian exercises will converge at one point in time - in the Black Sea, with a blockade of Ukrainian shipping, and in Belarus, in addition to the already existing grouping of troops on the borders with RUSSIA, Preobrazhensky draws attention. “Here the West does not need any words, there they see, as they say, military preparations and do not understand when they can be completed. And the level of distrust is such that no one seriously believes in the Kremlin’s assurances, just as in Moscow they don’t believe the United States “on the word” and, judging by the upcoming call from Biden, they are now seeking a personal meeting between Biden and Putin as the third stage of negotiations and a guarantee that that hostilities will not begin,” Preobrazhensky believes.

Western countries still do not understand the point of concentrating such a large number of military and infrastructure on the border with Ukraine, this is a very costly undertaking - the transfer of troops, their deployment, the construction of facilities for them, and Russiadoes not explain the reason otherwise than by the fact that on its territory it has the right to do whatever it wants; given the almost complete lack of confidence in Russia, the West proceeds from the worst-case scenario, which explains the next round of tension, Oleg Ignatov, consultant of the International Crisis Group, assessed the current escalation in an interview with RBC. The reiterated Russian statement that the troops arrived for the exercises, from the point of view of Western countries, cannot normalize the situation, because the exercises are taking place on the territory of Belarus and they do not require such a number of military personnel, the expert continues. However, it cannot be denied that there is also an element of pressure from the United States and other countries: by releasing intelligence data, they are forcing Russia to give explanations, depriving it of the effect of surprise, and the threat of sanctions negatively affects the Russian economy,