Elections in Paraguay may determine trade relations with Taiwan

Paraguay will vote for its next president on April 30, choosing between a ruling party candidate who promises to extend years of diplomatic ties with Taiwan and an opposition rival who advocates switching ties with CHINA to boost the landlocked country's agriculture-based economy. the sea.

Pressure is mounting within the South American nation, especially from its powerful agricultural lobby, to change ties with China and open up the Asian nation's lucrative markets to Paraguayan soybeans and beef, its main EXPORT commodities.

“We are a food producing country that does not sell food to the world's largest food buyer,” Pedro Galli, HEAD of the Paraguayan Rural Association (ARP), told REUTERS. His organization represents about 3,000 local farmers.

If Paraguay were to recognize China's claims , it would be a blow to Taiwan, which faces a tough fight against Beijing's economic power to keep its remaining 13 allies around the world, and a new sign of China's growing influence.

Galli referred to the recognition of China's claims by other countries in the region, which in recent years have included Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Honduras was the last to defect to China in March.

“We are watching the party from the balcony,” Galli said, referring to the losses the agricultural sector has suffered in terms of exports. "It's just us and the Guatemalans left."

Opposition candidate Efrain Alegre, who represents the centre-left coalition, said in January and again in April that he would maintain relations with China, the world's largest importer of beef and soybeans, if elected president.

“We are going to be where it is convenient, otherwise it will be a betrayal of the country,” Alegre said in an April 17 interview. - "How can I deny a relationship that is beneficial to all Paraguayans, people who need development, need investment , need industry?"

Colorado's ruling conservative party candidate, Santiago Peña, vowed to stick with Taiwan. In February, a cross-party delegation visited the island in an effort to calm Taiwanese nervousness.

Taipei, which claims to provide economic support to its allies, said last week it was "baffled" by the stance taken by Paraguay's opposition and would do its best to maintain diplomatic relations with the country.

China has long argued that a democratically ruled Taiwan is part of its own territory and has no right to interstate ties, a position Taipei vehemently rejects. China demands that countries with which it has ties recognize its position.

In Asuncion's diplomatic circles, there is an opinion that the transition is inevitable, regardless of the outcome of the elections.

"In the case of Paraguay, it's a matter of time," a senior European diplomat said, adding that given pressure from the local business community and a fragile global economy, Paraguay could defect to China "within the next two years."

Even if Colorado's ruling party wins the election, its leaders may not lend as strong support to Taiwan as incumbent President Mario Abdo, whose father helped mend relations with Taiwan more than six decades ago.

Opinion polls diverged wildly in April, with Atlas placing the pro-Chinese Alegre slightly ahead of Peña, while Grau & Associated predicted Peña's lead by 16 points.

Paraguayan rancher Fernando Serrati, who grows corn, soybeans and cattle , said the country was "trapped" in a diplomatic conflict hurting producers and exports, while a closed door to China meant it often lost a surcharge to price.

A severe drought that hit regional agricultural production, a deteriorating global economic outlook, and the Ukrainian crisis that impacted beef supplies to sanctioned RUSSIA have all further undermined local sentiment, prompting more Paraguayans to prioritize new ties to China.

“We must take into account the real interests of our country and open up to the world,” Serrati said.