The EU will reduce the production of beef and pork

There have been some concerns about food availability in the EU single market due to high market prices and inflationary trends. 

EU beef production is expected to decline by 0.5% in 2022 despite high prices, mainly due to structural adjustment in the meat and dairy sectors. Exports should pick up slightly thanks to recent trade deals, but are held back by limited domestic supplies and trade tensions with the UK. EU beef imports are expected to recover by 15% in 2022 (after two years of declining imports) due to the reopening of catering establishments in the EU, a faster recovery in supplies from Brazil and additional quota imports from Argentina.

The high costs and lingering effects of African swine fever (ASF) are expected to lead to lower EU pork production in 2022, as price increases in the pork market are likely to be temporary. Exports from the EU should also decline due to ASF concerns, despite a recovery in exports to the UK and gains in market share in some other countries. Overall, EU pork exports are expected to decline by 9.6% in 2022, which means it will still reach levels 19% higher than the 2016-18 average. Pork imports to the EU from the UK will rise strongly in 2022, by 34%. As a result, total EU pork imports should increase by 28%, reaching a level 21% lower than the 2016-2018 average.

EU poultry meat production is projected to increase slightly in 2022, with avian influenza (AI) still the main limiting factor. The high prices so far offset the high costs. Exports from the EU should start to recover despite trade restrictions.

Additional imports from the UK, Brazil, Thailand and China could replace imports from Ukraine. The poultry trade with the UK is certainly recovering to pre-Brexit levels. EU poultry meat exports to the UK are expected to increase by 20% in 2022, to a level 6% above the 2016-19 average. EU imports from the UK could increase by 25% in 2022, reaching levels that will still be 3% below the 2016-19 average.

The recovery of the EU food service sector is likely to continue to boost imports, as evidenced by imports from the UK, Brazil and Ukraine in early 2022. Imports from Ukraine continued and reached the same level as in recent years. Given Ukraine's duty-free/quota-free access to the EU market from June 2022, they may increase even more. Overall, EU poultry meat imports are expected to grow by 16.5% in 2022 (4% below the 2016-2019 average).