United States, July Cattle Inventory

it is obvious that during the last five years there has been a constant reduction in both the number of cattle and cows (about 7%). Despite the high prices for cattle , this is a direct reflection of the now almost permanent drought in some regions and the reduction in the number of pastures, in addition, all this is exacerbated by high feed prices. We believe that this year the trend has not changed and compared to last year, the number of cows decreased by 700,000. From the beginning of the year to the current date, beef production in the United States has decreased by 4.7%. Over the same period, pork production in the United States increased by 0.3%.

Europe

In the first quarter of this year, pork production in Europe fell by 8%. Compared to the same quarter last year, slaughter of pigs decreased by 4.7 million heads (more than 350,000 slaughter pigs per week less). The decrease in production is observed in almost all European countries: Spain -9%, Germany -8%, Denmark -14%. As usual, as supply decreases due to financial losses, pig prices begin to rise. Prices are now at record highs in much of Europe. But despite this, the latest data from Germany indicate that the elimination of sows continues.

For information: since the beginning of the year, European exportsPork fell 15%, while American rose 8%. Currently, the price of slaughter pigs in the United States is about US$50-60/head lower than in Europe. What a surprise - foreign buyers of pork are switching to a cheaper source of its imports. Nothing new - it's just arbitrage.

CHINA

China is not only the world's largest producer of pigs, but also the largest importer of pork. We are amazed that hog prices in China are still causing losses to producers in the range of US$40-50/head. According to our calculations, Chinese pig producers have been losing significant amounts for 20 of the last 24 months. This sad statistic can be seen in the financial statements of 19 public companies, which together lost several billion US dollars during this time .. At the same time, ASF continues to reduce production. And it's only a matter of time before the financial losses of the last two years lead to a skyrocketing price of slaughter pigs in China. And at the same time, demand for imported pork will support pork prices in other countries. Everything we want to convey - sooner or later, but it will happen - it is inevitable.

United States

We believe the breeding stock of pigsin the United States continues to decline. The elimination of sows and insufficient introduction of gilts reduces the breeding herd. Producers' capital reserves are under serious threat. And even though prices for slaughter pigs with 53-54% lean muscle mass are now poised to break the $1.00 US/lb ($2.21 US/kg) mark, well above what they were quite recently, Unfortunately, futures dictate a harsh reality: October - 84¢ cents/lb ($1.85 US/kg), December - 76¢ cents/lb ($1.68 US/kg), February - 81¢ cents/lb ($1.79 US/kg), meaning losses $30-40/head this fall and winter. There is no optimism in this market. The cash price of $10 US/head for weaned piglets reflects the grim reality of the market. However, we do not lose optimism (probably excessive), we expect prices to be higher than current futures predict. Why? We expect a reduction in the supply of pigs compared to last year, a continuation of the downward trend in beef production, a significant decrease in chicken MEAT production and a further increase in pork exports. We also believe that the weather will be favorable - it will rain (why not). This will result in a record corn harvest in the United States, lower feed costs and lower pork production costs. Like in that joke: “We see a pile of dung, maybe there is a Pony inside” ... significant decline in chicken meat production and a further increase in pork exports. We also believe that the weather will be favorable - it will rain (why not). This will result in a record corn harvest in the United States, lower feed costs and lower pork production costs. Like in that joke: “We see a pile of dung, maybe there is a Pony inside” ... significant decline in chicken meat production and a further increase in pork exports. We also believe that the weather will be favorable - it will rain (why not). This will result in a record corn harvest in the United States, lower feed costs and lower pork production costs. Like in that joke: “We see a pile of dung, maybe there is a Pony inside” ...

But, on the other hand, the pig industry was not built by pessimists.

Last week, a major 240-page analysis was published on the global porcine genetics business. Report prepared by Research Cognizance New York, New York. The genetics company GENESUS has been named one of the top players in what comes under the heading Global Animal Breeding Services Market Research Report 2023-2030. It's nice to be recognized as one of the world's leading genetics companies. It should be noted that of the five largest companies designated by the agency, only Genesus is based in North America.