Analysts reported a drop in Russian oil shipments to India.

Russian oil shipments to India fell 66% from November 1 to 17 compared to the same period the previous month, according to The Economic Times (ET), citing a report from analytics firm Kpler.

The report said crude oil shipments to India from RUSSIA fell to 672,000 barrels per day (bpd) between November 1 and 17, down from 1.88 million bpd in October.

ET attributes this trend to the fact that oil refineries have become more cautious in the wake of US sanctions against Rosneft and LUKOIL. According to a Kpler report, total Russian oil shipments to all destinations in November fell by 28% compared to the previous month, amounting to 2.78 million barrels per day.

Analysts estimate that Russian oil shipments to CHINA and Turkey in November also declined compared to October—by 47% (to 624,000 barrels per day) and 87% (to 43,000 barrels per day), respectively.
According to Kpler, China, India, and Turkey accounted for almost 90% of Russian crude oil exports in October.

The publication reminds that November 21 marks the expiration of the US deadline to wind down transactions with Rosneft, LUKOIL, and their subsidiaries in which the companies own 50% or more. Transactions related to the sale of LUKOIL's international assets are permitted until December 13.

Russian fuel shipments reach India approximately a month after dispatch. Therefore, most of the shipments shipped in November will only arrive in the country the following month, after November 21, when US sanctions take effect, ET notes. Therefore, the publication calls the actions of Indian companies a "logistics tactic": they are trying to meet deadlines and reducing order volumes.

ET also reports that Indian refineries are facing the urgent need to import previously contracted shipments. Consequently, between November 1 and 17, Russian oil imports into India increased to 1.88 million barrels per day—16% compared to the October average.

Even before the US imposed sanctions on Rosneft and LUKOIL, India faced Washington's threats to increase tariffs on Russian oil purchases. Negotiations proved unsuccessful, and the 50% tariffs went into effect.

The dilemma for the country—the third-largest oil importer—was not only geopolitical but also practical, the Financial Times noted. Leading Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia told the publication that New Delhi would not be able to easily replace Russia.oil and find an alternative supplier of 2 million barrels of crude oil per day. He doubted that the country would stop buying Russian oil, but noted the authorities' possible willingness to diversify supply channels.

According to Kpler, India's oil import costs could increase by more than $9–11 billion if it refuses Russian supplies.

Moscow considers the sanctions illegal. The Kremlin claimed that the Russian economy had developed a "certain immunity" to them and continued to function.

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