The situation in China remains the biggest factor affecting the global meat market

In the coming year, Chinese import demand could rise and thus support prices in the global MEAT market, expects Richard Brown of the French consulting and research company GIRA.

The medium and long term outlook for the global meat market remains positive despite the many challenges facing the industry. This was a message from Richard Brown of the French consulting and research company Gira, which was presented at the Deutscher Fleisch Kongress (German Meat Congress) and the Fleischwirtschaft conference in Mainz. He said that growth in global meat consumption, which had lasted for years, slowed down in 2019 and 2020, and will stop this year. The main reason for the temporary decline was not the CORONAVIRUS pandemic, but African swine fever, which caused a decline in production in Asia.

In CHINA, high prices have stimulated strong investment in pig production, with production rebounding much faster than expected from the ASF-related downturn. Growing concerns about ASF infections have led to an increase in hog slaughter this summer, causing prices to drop in the Chinese market. Fear of a further fall in income increased the willingness to sell, thereby accelerating the fall in prices. The slaughter of sows has increased. Therefore, Richard Brown expects that the supply in the Chinese market will decrease in the coming months, which may lead to higher prices and an increase in import demand at the beginning of the Chinese New Year, which will be celebrated on February 1 next year. Import demand this year will be 4.3 million tons of pork and will be less than the initial forecast of 5.2 million tons, the expert notes.

The GIRA expert noted that meat consumption is growing worldwide despite rising prices. Lamb prices have more than doubled since 2009, he said: beef by almost 70%, poultry by more than 40% and pork by more than 30%. However, the industry faces significant challenges. Issues such as environmental protection, animal welfare, HEALTH and antibiotics are at the center of attention around the world, although the focus is on regional differences. In many meat industry countries, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find workers. European industry is also facing EU policy decisions such as the Farm to Fork strategy and the Green Deal.