Export of agricultural products increased by 18%

Since the beginning of the year, exports of agricultural products amounted to $19.2 billion, which is almost 18% more than in the same period last year, according to the Agroexport center subordinate to the Ministry of Agriculture. The average price of a ton of exported products increased by 28% to $502. The growth driver for the reporting period was oil and fat products — up 43% to $4.3 billion, on average this category of goods costs $906/t against $565/t a year earlier. The EXPORT of oil and fat products is based on sunflower oil, which was sold for $2.6 billion, last year - for $1.8 billion. Supplies of cake, rapeseed and soybean oils, margarine also showed growth.

MEAT and dairy products rank second in terms of export growth, they were exported by $878 million, which is 26% more than a year earlier. This product has also risen in price — by an average of 16% to $1.9 thousand per ton. The main driver in this category is beef, with sales of $117 million, up from $37 in 2020. Pork exports increased from $188 million to $252 million, ice cream - from $39 million to $57 million. Poultry meat sales increased by $1 million compared to last year, to $275 million.

Grains close the top three in terms of the dynamics of export growth over the year, their supplies added 15% to $5.6 billion, a ton of this product rose in price by an average of 22% to $249 over the year. At the heart of exports, wheat, which was shipped for $4.1 billion, was $30 million less a year earlier. They are followed by barley - $709 million against $567 million, corn - $690 million against $471 million, rice - $46 million this year and $28 - last year. Buckwheat and millet showed the largest growth, with sales growing from $15 million to $38 million.

Exports of food and processing industry products over the year increased by 6% to $2.56 billion, on average, a ton of this category of goods rose by 24% to $562. Including confectionery showed an increase from $635 million to $779 million, the export of beverages decreased from $425 million to $318 million, products of deep processing of grain - from $270 million to $168 million against. Export of SUGAR products decreased from $511 million to $225 million.

The main importer of Russian products is Turkey, the increase in exports to this country in value terms for the year amounted to 29%, the amount of deliveries - $2.4 billion. The EU is next - plus 31% to $2.3 billion and CHINA  - minus 6% to $2. 2 billion

“Export growth occurred only in value terms. In natural terms, it decreased by 8.5%. The real drivers of growth were world prices: for oil and fat products - plus 60%, for grains - 23%, ”commented Maxim Nikitochkin, Senior Manager of the EY Agricultural Services Group. According to him, the only category that showed growth in physical terms was meat and dairy products, mainly due to the opening of new markets and the establishment of supplies to Asian countries from the Middle East to Southeast Asia.

Nikitochkin sees export growth points in oil and fat and meat products, the supply of which can increase quite significantly. Second-tier drivers are confectionery, beverages, soybeans, legumes, advanced grain processing products, and dairy products. In his opinion, export duties, the epizootic situation, the protectionist policy of partner countries can hold back deliveries, and the last two factors are hardly predictable, unlike the first.

Undoubtedly, the most massive exported agricultural product with high added value is vegetable oil, says Mikhail Maltsev, HEAD of the Oil and Fat Union. “According to our forecasts, in physical terms, the export of sunflower oil in 2021 will decrease by 5% compared to 2020, and soybean oil will decrease by 8%. But in 2021, exports in physical terms of rapeseed oil and meal from all major oilseeds will increase by 20%, and from soybeans and rapeseed - twice, ”he commented. According to the union, the supply of all oil and fat products abroad in 2021 will increase by 10% compared to 2020. 

This year, the volume of products shipped abroad may reach more than $6 billion, continues Maltsev. Such a high financial result will be possible due to the increase in world prices. For example, vegetable oils exported by RUSSIA increased in price by 33% compared to the 2019/20 season, meal - by 28%, margarine - by 17%, mayonnaise - by 8%. The average price for all oil and fat products, according to the union, increased by 28% to $814/t.

According to Vladimir Petrichenko, General DIRECTOR of the ProZerno analytical company, at the moment there are no visible circumstances that could slow down the export of oil and fat products and grains. “Firstly, grain prices are now quite high, and secondly, prices for sunflower, rapeseed, and soybean oils are also not low. Compared to the second half of 2020, export volumes will not decrease significantly. It is still difficult to talk about value terms due to the volatility of the market, but there will definitely not be a failure due to high prices, ”commented Petrichenko. The decrease in wheat production compared to last year and the export duty on grains may negatively affect export volumes, but current high prices and their likely further growth may offset this.

In the structure of exports of Russian agricultural products in terms of revenue in 2020, confectionery products ranked fourth after grain, seafood and fat and oil products, the Association of Confectionery Industry Enterprises (ASKOND) notes. The potential for the development of export sales of confectionery products is far from being exhausted, says a representative of the association. The growth in deliveries can be facilitated by the further implementation of the state program to support exports, damping price fluctuations for raw materials and packaging using market-based regulatory instruments and guaranteeing stable working conditions for the confectionery industry without introducing new tax and non-tax burdens.

However, as an ASKOND representative said, there are factors that can hold back deliveries. The first is an increase in the cost of raw materials. For example, in the first quarter of 2021, higher growth rates of average annual import prices for cocoa beans (+9.4% compared to the first quarter of 2020) and cocoa powder (+14%) were noted. “Confectioners are especially concerned about the dynamics of sugar prices. In August 2021, its cost for industrial consumers increased by 1.6 times compared to the same period last year - from 31 rubles / kg to 44 rubles / kg, ”says a representative of the association. Fixed growth in the cost of logistics and packaging may also be another reason for the slowdown in exports.

And this fact will be taken into account when preparing the monthly analytical report Meatinfo.ru