RaboResearch: Global beef market will grow despite uncertainty

The bank explained that despite continued market volatility, Brazil and China have strengthened their positions as leaders in beef exports and imports. In this dynamic environment, the global beef sector will face both challenges and opportunities in the future.

Global beef trade volumes have increased over the past five years, with exports up 14% since 2019 and reaching nearly 13 million tonnes in 2024 .

 "Brazil and China have consolidated their positions as dominant powers, with Brazil leading in exports and China in imports," says Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst at RaboResearch. "Brazilian beef exports have risen sharply from 2.3 million tonnes in 2019 to a projected 3.6 million tonnes in 2024, largely driven by growing demand in the Chinese market." This growth underscores the key role of Brazil, which accounts for approximately 50% of China's beef imports.

The beef market is experiencing significant volatility due to disease outbreaks, geopolitical tensions and changing economic conditions.

Gidley-Baird said unpredictability is expected to persist, impacting traditional trade flows and creating uncertainty.

As tariffs and market access restrictions remain, geopolitical conditions remain a key driver of market fluctuations.

“Companies that can navigate this volatility and take advantage of favorable conditions will be well positioned to succeed,” RaboResearch said.

The key driver of global beef trade growth in the coming years will be increased consumption in Asia. Vietnam , China, Malaysia, and the Philippines are demonstrating significant growth in per capita consumption, as these countries rely on beef imports.

RaboResearch pointed to South American countries, particularly Brazil, as countries expected to meet this demand through increased productivity and improved management practices.

Global beef production has grown by 5.5% over the past five years, according to the bank, but a temporary decline was expected, particularly in the United States , Brazil and Europe.

" This decline will support cattle and beef prices by passing on profits to producers," Gidley-Baird explained.

However, production levels are expected to recover due to improved genetics and increased carcass weights.

Given the global supply adjustment, tensions between global and domestic consumers could intensify as domestic consumption declines in countries such as Brazil and export prices rise.

Find out more about Rabobank beef here.