France: pig production outlook for 2023

it is expected that in 2023 the number of French pigs will continue to gradually decline. Given this trend, and despite rising productivity, a decline in pork production in France seems highly likely, according to FranceAgriMer's Dairy, MEAT and Poultry Markets Balance 2022, Forecast 2023.

France's EXPORT opportunities will be limited, all the more so when production tends to decline. Domestic consumption has traditionally been considered a natural outlet for French products, and exports are often only counted as surpluses. But even under favorable conditions, export volumes tend to reach their limit, as we saw in 2020-2021.

*Forecasts. Source: FranceAgriMer.

Given grain and soybean meal price forecasts, pig feed costs are likely to remain high through at least the first quarter of 2023. Thus, the issue of sustainability for less profitable farms is likely to become more important. In addition, the decline in production is likely to affect the slaughtering/butchering industry, which may lead to the restructuring of some enterprises.

The main problem is the spread of ASF (African swine fever) in Europe, which is getting closer and closer to the borders of France. This is why the agreement between France and CHINA on the recognition of zoning and compartmentalization is an important step forward, because if France were affected by ASF, exports of pork products to China could continue from the country's ASF-free zones.