Livestock prices hit historic highs in Wales

According to the latest market data published by Hybu Cig Cymru - MEAT Promotion Wales, sheep and cattle prices in Wales have reached an all-time high. Free-range lamb and beef prices have also been on an upward trend since early 2021, reaching levels well above the long-term average.

The current average price for premium lambs in Wales is nearly 15% higher than this time last year and more than 35% higher than the five year average price (week ending 20 March). The average for bulls in England and Wales for the week ending March 13 was the highest since 2013 - 14% more than last year - while heifers and young bulls were up 13% and 17% respectively compared to the same week in 2020.

Meat Promotion Wales (HCC) analyst Glesney Phillips explains that current prices are driven by three main factors. “Limited supply in both the domestic and global markets, coupled with changes in trading patterns as a result of Brexit and covid-19, and robust retail demand have all resulted in high prices for livestock farmers.”

The slaughter data indicates a weak supply in the market. Between May and December last year, the supply of lambs rose by 1.9% year-over-year, a likely result of Brexit uncertainty and high prices at the time. This has affected the supply in 2021 and resulted in a 13.5% reduction in the supply of lambs in January and February of this year.

Livestock deliveries in early 2021 were also limited. According to the British BCMS data for January, the number of cattle (without dairy females) aged 12 to 30 months decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year. Beef production figures for January and February reflect limited domestic supply, with production currently down 2.3% from 2020. Going forward, the supply of cattle aged 1 to 12 months (excluding dairy females) is projected to increase by 1.5% compared to last year, so supply is expected to recover in the coming months and in 2022.

“In addition to limited supply, trade patterns have also been disrupted by Brexit and covid, which continue to impact demand for red meat from the food service sector and EXPORT markets,” said Glesney Phillips. significantly lower than usual in early 2021, with imports also down. The January figures were affected by post-Brexit issues, as well as other factors such as pre-Brexit meat stockpiling and strong domestic demand.”

In January 2021, total UK imports of red meat (including fresh/frozen and offal) fell by 41.5% year-on-year, while exports were down 56.0%. In particular, trade with Ireland was disrupted, resulting in a reduction in imports of mutton and beef in January, while imports of mutton from Australia and New Zealand rose by 15.4% and 12.8%, respectively, compared with January last year.  

On the contrary, retail demand was strong due to the pandemic forcing the UK population to stay at home, which has dramatically changed shopping and food habits. In the 12 weeks to 21 February 2021 retail beef spending increased 15.8% year-over-year to £1.2bn, while sales rose 12.7% driven by new buyers.