According to experts

, the first refusals in the clearance of transit goods of non-Turkish origin, where RUSSIA was indicated as the destination country,recorded at the beginning of March

Business is looking for alternative routes after Turkey's decision to stop transit to Russia as part of the parallel import of goods with goods subject to sanctions , Alesya Litvinenko, HEAD of the STALOGISTIC western procurement sector, told RBC. According to her, the UAE could become a possible alternative.

With the fact that, as an alternative, routes using transit to the UAE and further through Iran can be considered, Ivan Golovko, head of international trucking at Noytech Supply Chain Solutions, agrees. Another option is with a visit to some CIS countries, “which will accordingly affect both prices and terms,” he said.

According to Litvinenko, Turkey's decision is connected with Ankara's entry into the Customs Union with the EU. In this regard, the clearance of goods de facto takes place in the European customs system, in which there is a ban on the EXPORT of sanctioned goods to Russia, she noted. This applies to goods of both European and American origin.

The customs union between the European Union and Turkey was established in 1995, it provides for the rejection of the use of duties and non-tariff restrictive measures in mutual trade. It does not cover agricultural products and carbon and steel products. According to the agreement, Turkey must bring its rules in line with EU rules on foreign trade.

The expert noted that de jure Turkey did not impose sanctions against Russia. “And, we believe, we should not expect official notifications from the Turkish government, as this will be confirmation that Turkey facilitated the transit of sanctioned goods to Russia,” she said.

Golovko said that now Turkey is blocking goods in transit to Russia, with sanctions codes of the TN VED. So far, the Turkish authorities have not commented on the situation. Cargoes of Turkish origin and not subject to sanctions pass customs clearance without hindrance, he said.

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As Grigory Grigoriev, CEO of Novelco, noted in a conversation with RBC, the first refusals to process transit cargo, where Russia was indicated as the country of destination, began on March 6 of this year. Since 2012, Turkey has been included as a participant in the European electronic document management system for organizing transit NCTS (New Computerized Transit System). In the tenth package of sanctions, the EU introduced a restriction on the transit of dual-use goods through Russia. “An instrument for their regulation can also be the NCTS system, the update of which contains these changes. At the same time, locally, the countries participating in the system can make changes to it based on their preferences. Thus, today we are witnessing the consequences of updating this system. However, there are already legal tools

At the same time, the Novelco CEO noted, on March 8, a similar situation arose with those cargoes that arrive from Russia to Turkey and then go to third countries, but soon the system began to accept such “transit”. “Turkish sources confirm that the distributed list of TN VED codes, which are allegedly prohibited for delivery through Turkey, has no official confirmation. Who, when and in what connection made it, is still unknown, ”he added.

SOTA Logistic Commercial DIRECTOR Kirill Latinsky said that Ankara's decision was not unexpected. “It is possible that the next step of the Turkish authorities will be a complete legislative ban on the re-export of goods of non-Turkish origin through Turkey to Russia,” he suggested.

“Apparently, their further deliveries will take place first through customs clearance in Turkey with the payment of all customs duties to the local budget, and then, when the cargo is sold in the Russian Federation, export clearance will be carried out - also with payment to the budget,” admits Latin. In this case, he warned, the transit time for the delivery of goods and their prices in Russia would increase significantly.

Considering that Turkey has a customs union with the European Union and they use NCTS, it is quite possible that the failure in transit is associated with updating this information system, Andrey Tochin, director of the Institute for the Development of Integration Processes of the All-Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development, suggested. “In general, we see that the European sanctions potential in terms of restrictions on foreign trade with Russia is close to exhaustion - there is nowhere to impose new sanctions in this area. It is logical that in the next round they will try to patch up holes in the current sanctions regime, increase pressure on transit countries and financial institutions that serve trade,” the expert said. In addition, according to him, the problem with Turkish transit arose simultaneously with the strengthening of compliance with respect to payments in euros,

“There are always alternatives, but the question is their cost. In theory, it is possible to transport goods through the Caspian (from Iran) or through CHINA , but you will have to pay for these alternatives, ”says Tochin.

The interlocutors of Kommersant FM in the logistics market linked the stoppage of the transit of sanctioned goods with the visit of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Turkey in February. Earlier, Washington warned Ankara that it could impose secondary sanctions against Turkish companies for violating the regime of restrictive measures against Russia.

Deliveries from Turkey to Russia have been growing since the beginning of the summer and by the end of August amounted to $949 million, which is more than twice as much as the previous year and a third more than the previous month. Exports showed the same growth in September 2022 ($1.15 billion after $504 million a year earlier). In December, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that trade between Russia and Turkey had doubled from January to September 2022 and reached $45 billion.

The Russian government allowed the import of sought-after foreign-made original goods into the country and canceled liability for so-called parallel imports at the end of March 2022. By the end of December, 2.4 million tons of goods worth over $20 billion had been imported into the country under this mechanism.