Experts predict banks "respite after records"

The total net profit of Russian banks in 2022 will not reach the record level of last year and will amount to 2.1–2.3 trillion rubles, suggests the base scenario of the forecast of the Expert RA rating agency called “Respite after records” (available from RBC). This is 8–12.5% ​​lower than the financial result of the sector expected by analysts for 2021: according to their estimates, banks will earn 2.4–2.5 trillion rubles. — the maximum in the entire modern history of the Russian market.

The Bank of RUSSIA has not yet disclosed data on the net profit of credit institutions for 2021, but earlier it also predicted a result at the level of about 2.5 trillion rubles. (.pdf). For 11 months of 2021, market participants earned 2.24 trillion rubles, follows from the statistics of the Central Bank (.pdf).

Net profit in 2022 will not exceed last year’s figures due to a slowdown in lending, an increase in the cost of funding (raising funds) for banks amid rising rates, as well as an increase in the cost of risk, Expert RA believes. Agency analysts also allow the implementation of a negative scenario (increased sanctions and the introduction of significant sanitary restrictions due to covid-19 ), in which the financial result of Russian banks could reach 2 trillion rubles. or even roll back to the levels of the pandemic 2020 - 1.6 trillion rubles. The probability of such an outcome is 30-40%, the review says.