By the end of the century, heat stress for cattle could cost billions of dollars

Impending climate change could be an economic hardship for low-income livestock keepers in poor countries. The impact of heat stress on productive cattle will result in financial losses of between $15 billion and $40 billion per year

“Economic losses will mostly take place in low- and middle-income countries,” said Mario Herrero, professor of sustainable food systems and global change in the Department of Global Development at Cornell University's College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. - In a scenario with high greenhouse gas emissions, heat stress losses in livestock production are estimated at $39.94 billion per year, or 9.8% of the value of MEAT and MILK production from cattle in 2005. The low emissions scenario predicts production losses of $14.9 billion per year , or 3.7% of the 2005 value.”

Herrero, along with lead author Philip Thornton of the International Animal Research Institute and CGIAR; Gerald Nelson of the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, and Diane Mayberry of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia, published "The Impact of Heat Stress on Global Cattle Production in the 21st Century".

By the end of the century, dairy and beef production in the United States is projected to decline by 6.8%, while India, the largest dairy producing country, will lose more than 45% of its dairy farming due to increased heat stress.

Rising demand for livestock products in low- and middle-income countries, along with steadily rising global average temperatures, poses a significant challenge, the researchers say.

If livestock are to adapt to new thermal conditions and increase their productivity, investments in infrastructure (improved shading, ventilation and cooling systems) or adjustments in breeding, such as switching to more heat-tolerant breeds of cattle, will be required.

“Resource-poor farmers in low-income countries rely heavily on their livestock for their livelihood. The adaptation needs in these countries are even greater, and it is these farmers who will be hit the hardest,” Thornton explained.