FAO expects a decline in meat market turnover with an increase in production volumes

Based on the latest forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in 2021, against the backdrop of an increase in MEAT production, there will be stagnation, and possibly a decline, in world trade.

Experts suggest that the volume of meat production this year will increase by 2.2% - up to 346 million tons. The largest increase is expected in CHINA, Brazil, Vietnam, the United States and the European Union, while the decline is expected in Australia, Argentina and the Philippines.

Pork production will increase by 4.2% to 114 million tons, but will remain 5% below the level of 2017 before the outbreak of the African swine fever crisis in Asia. The main part of the increase will be provided by the restoration of production in China to 46 million tons (+10% compared to 2020, but 85% less than before the spread of ASF).

World beef production will grow by 1.2% to 72 million tons. The bulk of the increase will come from the US, Brazil and China . Mutton production will increase by about 1% to 1 million tons, mainly due to China .

The trade turnover of meat on the world market, on the contrary, will decrease by 42 million tons. Pork sales will sag 0.6% to 12.8 million tonnes, driven by a significant reduction in imports to China (-8%), as well as a moderate decrease in demand from Vietnam, CANADA and the UK. 

FAO predicts that the mutton trade will decline by 0.8% to barely exceed 1 million tonnes. Here, the main role will be played by the restriction of supplies from New Zealand, Great Britain, the usa and the EU countries to the Middle East. At the same time, demand for mutton in China will grow.

And this fact will be taken into account when preparing the monthly analytical report Meatinfo.ru

it is likely that beef trade volumes will rise by 1.1% to 12 million tons, because in the second half of the year China will increase the volume of purchases of this type of red meat, due to which Brazil, Uruguay, Canada and the United States will strengthen their positions in the largest of Asian markets.