C beef what demand. Consumption fell to a ten-year low

Restrictions due to the pandemic, including the suspension of restaurants, and a decrease in household incomes have negatively affected beef consumption. In 2020, the demand for this MEAT dropped to 1.94 million tons, a ten-year low. The industry expects that it will grow due to the increase in prices for poultry and pork, but experts do not consider this obvious.

Beef consumption in RUSSIA in 2020 decreased by 3.4%, to 1.94 million tons, which was the lowest level in the last ten years. Such data are provided by the Center for Industry Expertise of the Russian Agricultural Bank. The HEAD of the National Meat Association, Sergei Yushin, confirms the trend. Amid covid-19 restrictions, telecommuting and uncertain future incomes, consumers have been saving and choosing cheaper protein options, including poultry and pork, he said. In addition, a significant amount of beef falls on the HoReCa segment, which has declined in 2020, Mr. Yushin adds.

Demand for beef has been declining for the second year in a row, according to data from the Russian Agricultural Bank.

According to the head of the Center for Industry Expertise Andrey Dalnov, the dynamics is associated with a reduction in the production of cattle in private farms.

At the same time, beef exports increased by 103%, up to 20 thousand tons, in 2020, 45% of supplies came from CHINA . Sergey Yushin points out that the decrease in consumption occurs in the segment of dairy breeds, which accounts for up to 80% of the market, and the consumption of beef breeds for seven years has grown 5 times, to 300 thousand tons, premium cuts - 12 times, to 30 thousand .tons, he says.

Metro says demand for relatively cheap beef has been falling for several years, with sales of its premium Black Angus line up 25% in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, there is also a positive trend. Vkusvill recorded a slight increase in sales. In Lenta, Dixy, Magnit, X5 Retail Group (Pyaterochka, Perekrestok, Karusel) and Auchan did not answer “Kommersant”. Large beef producers - ABH Miratorg and Zarechnoye Group of Companies (Primebeef brand) - also did not provide comments.

Albert Davleev, President of Agrifood Strategies, predicts that beef will become an increasingly premium type of meat: the number of dairy cows will decrease due to increased MILK yield, and the share of beef breeds will increase.

But products from the latter are more expensive, the expert points out. Sergey Yushin adds that the premium segment of the market is still not saturated, so with the development of production and logistics, retail, delivery to remote regions and the restaurant business, consumption will also grow.

Andrey Dalnov predicts an increase in beef consumption by the end of 2021 due to the recovery in demand and the opening of the HoReCa segment. Another reason may be a surge in prices for pork and poultry, including due to the epidemiological situation in the production of these types of meat. Thus, in connection with African swine fever, the National Union of Pig Breeders lowered the forecast for the growth of pork production in 2021 from 250-260 thousand to 175-180 thousand tons, which will lead to maintaining prices at the level of 2020. And due to bird flu and problems with the supply of foreign hatching eggs in January-February, poultry meat output decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, according to Rosstat. According to the service, in December 2020, the average price of pork was 269.14 rubles. per 1 kg, poultry meat - 145.5 rubles. per 1 kg, beef - 508.18 rubles. for 1 kg. According to Mr. Dalnov's forecasts,

However, Albert Davleev points out that the increase in prices for pork and poultry this year is an extremely rare and short-lived phenomenon that will last no more than a few months, therefore he does not expect a switch to more expensive beef against the backdrop of a long-term decline in the purchasing power of the population.

According to Sergei Yushin, the demand for dairy meat will depend on the dynamics of the population's income. In addition, this product now also competes with turkey, the production and availability of which is growing, he points out. According to Agrifood Strategies, turkey production increased by 19.5% in 2020, to 330 thousand tons.