Scientists predicted the peak incidence of COVID-19 in Moscow

If the situation with COVID-19in Moscow will develop in the same way, the peak of the incidence will be in mid-September, predicted at SPbPU. The number of active patients in this case will be 1.3–1.6 times higher than during the peak in December

The peak incidence of COVID-19 in Moscow may occur in September. Such a forecast was given by scientists from the St. Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU), Izvestia reported.

The mathematical model developed by the scientists makes it possible to build nine curves for the spread of coronavirus, from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic. According to SPbPU, now the situation in Moscow is developing between the fourth and fifth curves.

If the situation goes along the fifth curve, the peak will be around September 19, the number of active patients will be about 225 thousand people, the head of the Center for Competence of the National Technology Initiative "New Production Technologies" of SPbPU, the head of the development of the mathematical model Alexei Borovkov, told the publication. Under the scenario corresponding to the fourth curve, the peak may come three days earlier - on September 16, and the number of active patients will be approximately 280 thousand people. “I note that these predicted estimates of the third peak are 1.3-1.6 times higher than the number of active patients in the second peak,” Borovkov said.

Under the most pessimistic scenario described by the first curve, the peak will occur at the end of summer, and the number of active cases of COVID-19 in Moscow could reach 443,000, he added.

WHO allowed a new lockdown due to the spread of the "delta plus" strain Society

At the same time, experts interviewed by the publication called the SPbPU forecast too harsh. According to the leading researcher of the Laboratory of Molecular Biology of Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov Roman Zinovkin, the incidence should decrease in a month. This will be facilitated by mass vaccination, as well as the end of exams and graduations, he believes. “Although forecasts are a thankless task, it seems to me that the peak will still be passed before September,” Zinovkin said.

Boris Ovchinnikov, director of research at Data Insight, agrees with him. “In any case, such a conclusion can be drawn based on previous waves of COVID-19. Perhaps this peak has already been passed. However, there are concerns about a new increase in the incidence in the fall. This is due to the fact that unvaccinated schoolchildren and students will return to their studies, business activity that has slightly subsided in the summer will resume, ”the expert noted.

The number of people infected with coronavirus in Russia began to grow again from the beginning of June. According to the operational headquarters, if since the end of March the daily increase has fluctuated between about 8-9 thousand infected, then on June 30 the figure was more than 21 thousand people.

The rate of spread of coronavirus in Russia 28 June Weekly growth rate of new cases, %. Week to week comparison.
The period from the beginning of May 2020 is being considered, when the number of daily codes for Koronavirus exceeded 200 thousand Creed with Highchcharts 8.2 : federal and regional headquarters for combating coronavirus Data for Russia i

In addition, deaths from COVID-19 also jumped in Russia. On June 30, 669 deaths were registered in the country - this is an absolute record since the beginning of the pandemic. For comparison: during the second wave, 635 deaths were recorded at the maximum per day, it was on December 24.