The Impact of Recent Trade Agreements on the Japanese Pork Market

Japan has recently ratified numerous trade agreements that will effectively eliminate the three tariff mechanisms (entry price, ad valorem and protective) previously used on most pork imports. Japan has ratified trade agreements with the United States, the European Union ( EU ), the United Kingdom ( UK ) and countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) which includes Australia , Brunei, CANADA , Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam .

The changes outlined in Japan's recent trade agreements could significantly increase the competitiveness of trade agreement partner countries in the Japanese pork market. This potential increase in overseas competitiveness could lead to lower domestic production, higher imports and thus increased availability of cheap foreign pork for Japanese consumers.

The estimated changes in value in 2028 compared to the 2018 baseline are as follows:

By 2028, Japanese pork imports will increase by 3.6% for carcasses and half carcasses, by 12.2% for raw MEAT cuts, and by 13.9% for processed pork products.

Japan's domestic production will decline by 4.2%, 11.6% and 11.8% for carcasses and half carcasses, raw meat cuts and processed pork products, respectively.

Total pork exports to Japan will increase in value terms (by $281.0 million, $244.5 million, $232.8 million and $0.21 million for the US , EU, CPTPP and UK , respectively.

If the US-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA) did not exist, the United States would be subject to Japan's WTO threshold price tariff system . In this hypothetical scenario, the results show that the United States would lose a significant portion of its market share to Japan's other trade agreement partners, with the US market share falling from 34% to 23% in 2028. The total value of US pork exports to Japan would also be down $385.9 million from 2018 levels.