Japan's cattle population continues to decline

Beef production is also expected to decline in 2024. Inflation is hitting retail beef sales, although consumption in the foodservice sector through increased foreign visitors will help overcome the dampening effect of inflation.

USDA 's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects the cattle population will fall to 3.920 million HEAD in 2024 due to increased dairy cow slaughter and a lack of live cattle imports in 2023. Dairy farmers slaughtered more cows in 2022 and 2023 to cope with excess MILK production. Accordingly, the number of dairy cows will decrease by 2024.

Japan will import almost zero live cattle in 2023 and 2024 due to trade difficulties such as weak economic growth and high transport costs, as well as sluggish demand caused by a narrowing price gap between domestic and imported beef calves.

Starting beef breeding cow numbers in 2024 will decline as struggling small farmers go out of business and overall calf production in 2024 will decline accordingly.

The FAS expects cow culling to reduce excess milk production to end in early 2024 once milk supply and demand have been rebalanced. After this, the slaughter rate of dairy cows will drop to normal levels. In turn, total slaughter and total beef production in 2024 will decrease compared to last year.

According to the latest statistics released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), as of February 1, 2023, the number of beef cattle operators in Japan decreased by 5% compared to 2022, although the total beef cattle population increased by 3% . Difficult market conditions for livestock production, namely high costs and low market prices , have forced many farmers raising fewer than 200 head of cattle out of the market.