Argentina is projected to increase beef sales to the US by 25% and to Brazil by 30% by 2026.

The analysis assumed the elimination of the 10% additional tariff worldwide, and specifically the 40% tariff applied to Brazil. It also forecasts a 9% increase in imports in 2026, following an estimated 14% increase this year, bringing the total volume to 2.6 million carcass-equivalent tonnes (CET).

The price increase is justified by rising domestic meat prices and declining production volumes amid very high demand. In terms of volume, Australia will remain the primary supplier in 2026, with shipments of 690,000 metric tons, although its sales will increase by only 5% after 30% growth this year, according to Valor Carne.

Brazil will be very close to this figure, with 570,000 TEK, with an accumulated increase of 40 and 30% respectively, despite the fact that it does not have its own quota but uses a third-country quota that has been reduced to 52,000 tons of product (around 70,000 TEK), which Paraguay also uses.

Next come Canada and Mexico, each with an import quota of 350,000 tonnes, but with a projected increase of 15% for Mexico and a decrease of 3% for Canada. This is despite neither country having import restrictions or tariffs. They are followed by New Zealand, with a quota of 275,000 tonnes, which, along with Australia, has the largest individual quota, representing an increase of only 10%.

Uruguay is next on the list, with a projected fuel oil supply of 190,000 tonnes (tCOE), followed by increases of 25% and 10%. Argentina is significantly lower, with a projected volume of 64,000 tCOE, and increases of 14% and 25%. The report does not mention a hypothetical quota of 80,000 tonnes, increased from the current 20,000. This quota would amount to almost 110,000 tCOE.

Paraguay will be close to this figure with 57,000 TEK, with subsequent increases of 120% and 25%. It's worth noting that Paraguay is only allowed to export to the US for one year. Nicaragua and several other markets will join the list of suppliers.