China: Year-end results for the pork market and forecast for 2025

Pork production in CHINA has experienced a decline, with production in the third quarter of 2024 recording a 0.8% year-on-year decline, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline. This decline is attributed to factors including low pork prices and persistent animal diseases.

Sluggish economic activity led to reduced consumer demand for pork, contributing to price volatility. The economic downturn prompted consumers to reduce spending on pork products, which impacted market prices. Abundant pork supplies combined with weak demand put downward pressure on pork prices, particularly in the second half of 2024. Producers faced challenges maintaining profitability in these market conditions.

The Chinese pork market is expected to continue to experience price volatility driven by production adjustments, changes in consumer demand, and broader economic factors. Producers and consumers should closely monitor these dynamics, navigating the evolving market landscape.

Forecast

The Chinese pork market is expected to experience several key trends in 2025, encompassing production, consumption, imports , and exports . Preliminary estimates suggest that pork production in China will decline by approximately 2% in 2025, reaching 55.5 million tons. This decline is attributed to declining sow inventories in 2024, which will lead to fewer piglets available on the market in 2025. Despite the overall decline, pork production is expected to recover in the second half of 2025 as sow inventories rebound, driven by producers' response to the recent rise in pig prices.

Pork consumption in China is projected to decline in 2025 due to economic difficulties and higher domestic pork prices. Furthermore, shifts in dietary preferences toward healthier options and alternative proteins, such as beef , poultry, and seafood, are contributing to this downward trend.

Pork imports are expected to remain stable in 2025, with consumers favoring fresh or chilled pork over frozen cuts. Competitive prices will continue to influence import volumes, with Spain, Brazil , Denmark, the Netherlands, and CANADA the main suppliers .

Pork exports are projected to increase modestly in 2025 compared to last year, driven primarily by demand from established markets such as Hong Kong and Japan . China primarily exports cooked, frozen, and fresh pork to these regions.

A sluggish economy and high domestic pork prices are expected to dampen consumer demand, affecting both consumption and import levels. In summary, the Chinese pork market in 2025 is projected to experience a decline in production and consumption, with stable import levels and slight growth in exports. Factors such as economic conditions, disease control, and changing consumer preferences will play a significant role in shaping these trends.