The main question in the EU pig sector will the decline in pig production continue in 2024?

The main question in the EU pig sector is whether slaughter has reached its low point in 2023, or whether the decline will continue into 2024 . Piglet production decreased by 10.6 percent, slaughter - by 12.0 percent. However, in 2023, the decline in herd size has virtually stopped, a clear sign that the pig production cycle has reached its lowest point. This is also evidenced by record prices for sows, piglets and carcasses.

The future direction of the carnage in the EU will largely be determined by opportunities in the export market. The EU pork export market is driving the growth of the EU pig sector, which is also a clear contrast to the EU beef sector, which does not have a profitable and significant market for beef in third countries.

Increasing supply in the EU internal market will displace local pork production from less competitive producers as domestic EU pork consumption has been declining since 2018.

 The question remains whether the EU pig sector has the potential to compete in the global market. The Spanish, Dutch and Danish pig industries are the most competitive producers in the EU and are among the top three exporters to third countries. In these three EU Member States, recent positive feeder profitability figures may provide incentive to increase pig stock size. The increase in income is based on higher prices farmers pay for carcasses, coupled with recent declines in prices farmers pay for feed and energy.

Spain, the world's largest pork exporter in 2022 (in CWE), was the EU member state with the largest export potential. But as with the Danish and Dutch sectors, the Spanish pig sector has taken a step back in response to lower demand from China . In 2023, slaughter in Spain decreased by 6.5 percent. Other reasons for the decline in slaughter included rising feed and energy prices, rising interest rates and stricter environmental, health and animal welfare regulations. In addition, outbreaks of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) have been reported in Catalonia and Aragon. In 2023, producers improved sanitation controls and were able to bring PRRS outbreaks under control. Improved sanitation is also expected to lead to improved piglet to sow ratios in 2024.